January 16, 2024

USDA forecasts changes in 2024 meat production, beef on a downward trend

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is indicating a shift in the country's meat production landscape for 2024, particularly with a projection of reduced beef production, Brownfield Ag News reported.

According to the latest projections, US beef production is estimated at 26.1 billion pounds, showing a modest increase of 20 million pounds from December figures. This marks a substantial decrease of 867 million pounds compared to the current 2023 estimate.

The USDA maintains the average price of a steer at US$178 per hundredweight, unchanged from the previous month but reflecting a US$2.46 increase compared to the estimate from a year ago. The USDA attributes this shift to higher beef imports coupled with lower exports and consumption expectations for the year.

In contrast, pork production is expected to rise to 27.97 billion pounds, showing an increase of 240 million pounds from the previous month and a notable 668 million pounds from the previous year.

The average price for a barrow and gilt is projected at US$58 per hundredweight, down $2 from the previous month and $.59 from the previous year. The USDA foresees year-to-year increases in pork imports, exports, and consumption.

Broiler production is estimated to reach 46.675 billion pounds, marking an increase of 50 million pounds from a month ago and over 350 million pounds from a year ago. The average price is set at US$1.26 per pound, a slight increase of US$.02 from December and maintaining the level projected for 2023. The USDA anticipates higher broiler imports and exports compared to the previous year, with consumption remaining nearly steady.

Turkey production is expected to be 5.47 billion pounds, reflecting a decrease of 40 million pounds from a month ago but a potential increase of 8 million pounds from a year ago. The average price is estimated at US$1.11 per pound, showing a drop of US$0.16 from the previous month and US$0.29 from 2023. The USDA envisions larger turkey imports and exports for the year compared to the previous year, with consumption remaining unchanged.

The USDA is scheduled to release its next set of annual meat projections on February 8, 2024.