January 16, 2012

High cotton output expected for India in 2011/12

The USDA estimates 2011/12 India cotton production at a record 27 million bales (480-pound bales), down 2% from last month, but up 1.6 million or 6% from last year.

Harvested area is estimated at 12.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 10% from last year. Yield is estimated at 482 kilograms per hectare, down 2% from last month and down 3% from last year.

The 2011 monsoon season started at a relatively slow rate in May, but conditions improved significantly in July and August. Despite a slow start to the season, favorable planting conditions in July and August extended the planting window and boosted plantings in all major growing areas.

Rainfall throughout the season progressed well and provided favourable conditions for crop growth and development. The ideal planting conditions, high domestic prices, and anticipated export demand encouraged record cotton plantings in the major growing areas of Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. But in some areas, especially Maharashtra, observers are concerned about possible yield reductions caused by below-normal rainfall at the beginning of the planting season and limited irrigation supplies in the areas that typically rely on supplemental irrigation.

Seed cotton arrivals from November through early January are averaging 25% lower than last year. The largest shortfalls, at approximately 40% less than the same time last year, are in Maharashtra, the state that contributes about 20% of national production. The delayed start to the harvest campaign and farmer holding (anticipating higher prices) are the primary suspects for the low arrivals, but lower yields may be a significant contributing factor as well.