January 16, 2006
ASA Weekly: US expects 84 million tonne soybean crop as yields may climb; Abiove expects 57.4 million tonne crop in 2005/06
US expects 84 million tonne soybean crop as yields may climb
USDA expects both larger soybean harvested area and higher yields for this summer's crop and has boosted the 2005/06 soybean production estimate to 84 million tonnes. Soybean exports could reach 25.9 million tonnes.
Export competition from South America has been unusually strong in recent months, reflecting large available supplies from record 2004/05 soybean crops, USDA said. Soybean stocks are projected at 13.7 million tonnes.
Total US oilseed production for 2005/06 is estimated at 96.4 million tonnes, up 0.5 million tonnes from last year.
Although soybean production accounts for most of the increase, sunflower seed, canola, cottonseed, and peanut production also could contribute to the boost in oilseed production.
Global oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at a record 389 million tonnes with foreign production likely to reach 292.5 million tonnes. USDA expects Brazil's soybean production for 2004/05 to be a record 53 million tonnes despite drought in southern Brazil.
Abiove expects 57.4 million tonne crop in 2005/06
Brazil's 2005/06 soybean production could reach 57.4 million tonnes, according to the latest estimate from the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove), the country's largest association of soybean crushers.
Abiove's soybean export estimate for the 2006/07 is 24.5 million tonnes. The large soybean crop will likely lead to an increase in soymeal production in Brazil, Abiove said. The crushers estimate soymeal production estimates is 22.9 million tonnes and they also expect soymeal exports to be 13.4 million. Soyoil production for 2005/06 is believed to be 5.65 million tonnes, while the export estimate is 2.4 million tonnes.
Abiove also estimates that Brazil's 2005/06 soy crush to be 29.7 million tonnes. According to the crusher's association, as stocks from the 2004/05 soy harvest dwindle, so has the Brazilian soy crush, falling in November to 2 million tonnes from October's 2.2 million tonnes.
November soy crush totals are the lowest they have been since 2001, when Brazilian crushers processed 1.9 million tonnes of soybeans. Abiove said. Nevertheless, Abiove expects a 2006/07 Brazilian crush of 29.5 million tonnes.
Local demand for soymeal continues to rise, due in part to demand from Brazil's large livestock industry, said Abiove. Meanwhile, soyoil demand remains volatile. Abiove estimates that Brazil's soy industry will profit only slightly better in 2006 because of rising international prices.
US farmers urged to continue to prepare for Asian soybean rust
Soybean experts are telling farmers to continue to be vigilant in preparing to fight the spread of Asian soybean rust.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | |||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
4,853 |
3,059 |
6,954 |
1,630 |
2,046 |
2,181 |
3,231 |
2,453 |
715 |
|
Production |
66,778 |
85,013 |
82,820 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
40,500 |
50,500 |
51,000 |
58,500 |
|
Imports |
151 |
152 |
109 |
540 |
530 |
485 |
364 |
400 |
425 |
|
Crush |
41,631 |
46,160 |
46,811 |
25,072 |
27,800 |
29,100 |
29,172 |
28,175 |
29,675 |
|
Exports |
23,946 |
30,011 |
27,759 |
6,500 |
9,800 |
10,000 |
19,571 |
22,180 |
25,750 |
|
Other |
3,146 |
5,099 |
4,297 |
1,552 |
1,795 |
1,810 |
2,899 |
2,783 |
3,000 |
|
Usage |
68,723 |
81,270 |
78,867 |
33,124 |
39,395 |
40,910 |
51,642 |
53,138 |
58,425 |
|
Carryout |
3,059 |
6,954 |
11,016 |
2,046 |
2,181 |
2,256 |
2,453 |
715 |
1,215 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
200 |
191 |
155 |
347 |
354 |
560 |
763 |
532 |
200 |
|
Production |
32,953 |
36,938 |
37,116 |
19,807 |
21,806 |
22,900 |
22,920 |
22,200 |
23,395 |
|
Domestic use |
28,590 |
30,448 |
31,116 |
700 |
850 |
950 |
8,784 |
8,850 |
9,250 |
|
Net Exports |
4,372 |
6,526 |
5,928 |
19,100 |
20,750 |
22,050 |
14,367 |
13,682 |
14,050 |
|
Usage |
32,962 |
36,974 |
37,044 |
19,800 |
21,600 |
23,000 |
23,151 |
22,532 |
23,300 |
|
Carryout |
191 |
155 |
227 |
354 |
560 |
460 |
532 |
200 |
295 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
676 |
488 |
771 |
99 |
74 |
100 |
150 |
93 |
95 |
|
Production |
7,748 |
8,781 |
9,011 |
4,513 |
5,115 |
5,354 |
5,258 |
5,120 |
5,371 |
|
Domestic use |
7,651 |
7,910 |
8,142 |
140 |
145 |
155 |
2,710 |
2,848 |
2,870 |
|
Net exports |
285 |
588 |
583 |
4,398 |
4,944 |
5,224 |
2,605 |
2,270 |
2,516 |
|
Usage |
7,936 |
8,498 |
8,725 |
4,538 |
5,089 |
5,379 |
5,315 |
5,118 |
5,386 |
|
Carryout |
488 |
771 |
1,057 |
74 |
100 |
75 |
93 |
95 |
80 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 05 January 2006 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
1.30 |
121.00 |
|
Honduras |
Soymeal |
0.10 |
45.60 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
267.50 |
5136.00 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
0.10 |
6.10 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
5.00 |
54.70 |
|
Jamaica |
Soymeal |
0.40 |
27.40 |
|
Cuba |
Soybeans |
0.10 |
55.50 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
12.20 |
100.70 |
|
Egypt |
Soybeans |
25.30 |
283.00 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
15.10 |
361.30 |
|
Germany |
Soybeans |
60.30 |
134.60 |
|
Nicaragua |
Soymeal |
2.80 |
18.20 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
0.60 |
492.70 |
|
OPAC Is. |
Soymeal |
0.70 |
3.30 |
|
Italy |
Soybeans |
20.30 |
20.30 |
|
Panama |
Soymeal |
0.10 |
43.70 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
65.20 |
994.10 |
|
Australia |
Soyoil |
0.30 |
0.40 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
21.80 |
1223.70 |
|
Bahamas |
Soyoil |
0.10 |
0.00 |
|
Netherlands |
Soybeans |
55.20 |
510.30 |
|
Barbados |
Soyoil |
0.10 |
0.50 |
|
Philippines |
Soybeans |
2.10 |
4.30 |
|
Egypt |
Soyoil |
0.10 |
0.10 |
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
1.80 |
624.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turkey |
Soybeans |
36.80 |
284.10 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Australia |
Soymeal |
7.80 |
7.80 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
28.30 |
293.30 |
|
Soybeans |
4,148.80 |
11,296.90 |
448.00 |
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
10.50 |
99.60 |
|
Soymeal |
1,300.20 |
1,607.50 |
68.90 |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
0.20 |
74.50 |
|
Soyoil |
75.30 |
98.50 |
0.30 |
| Note: New marketing year for soybeans began September 1, 2005 | ||||||||
