January 15, 2007
ASA weekly: Big gains for US soy growers; Brazil's biofuel programme may be put on hold; Argentina increases tax on soy exports
The US oilseed production for 2006-07 is estimated at 96.9 million tones, up 1.4 million tonnes from last year, according to the latest USDA S&D report.
The US soybean production is estimated to be 86.8 million tonnes, while the yield is estimated at 2.87 tonnes per hectare, below last year's record of 2.89 tonnes per hectare, the USDA said. Soybean exports could be 30.5 million tonnes reflecting weaker-than-expected shipments in November and December.
The USDA expects global oilseed production for 2006-07 to be a record 395.4 million tonnes. Foreign oilseed production is projected at 298.6 million tonnes and global soybean production is expected to be 226.9 million tonnes.
Biodiesel production is poised for takeoff in 2007, Kansas soybean growers were told last week at the annual Kansas Soybean Expo in Topeka, Kansas. Rob Joslin, American Soybean Association vice president also expects Midwestern farmers to be winners in the 2007 farm bill as key players in Congress are from Midwestern states. However, he said the baseline for farm programmes could be reduced because this year's high prices have reduced loan payments and counter-cyclical payments. Regardless of farm bill policy, he expects biodiesel to be a significant factor in soybean marketing.
Rising soy prices hinder Brazil's biofuel programme
Brazil's Supply Department of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB) estimates soybean area at 20.7 million tonnes in its January update, similar to its previous estimate. This would mean a 7-percent decline from last season. The soybean production was forecast at 54.9 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, Brazil's Institute for Geography and Statistics' (IBGE) latest soybean area estimate represents an 8 percent reduction from last season.
Incidentally, rising soy prices are threatening to slow down the government's ambitious biodiesel and H-Bio programme, according to analysis by FO Licht. The country will begin its obligatory 2-percent mix of biodiesel in all diesels in Jan 2008, resulting in the use of roughly 800 million litres of biodiesel a year. However, soaring prices have led to some biodiesel projects being put on indefinite hold.
H-Bio fuel also may run into cost hurdles, according to the FO Licht report. H-Bio is diesel fuel blended with a 5 to 15 percent mix of pure vegetable oils (not esters) such as soy, sunflower, cotton, and castor.
Unlike biodiesel, the fuel is blended with these oils at the refinery, not by distributors at the gas station. The new fuel was announced by Petrobras in Jun 2006 to boost Brazil's energy independence and aid the country's large-scale commercial soy producers a month after the country's no. 1 soy state of Mato Grosso shut down soy trade. However, FO Licht says Brazil is not likely to see very much of H-Bio produced in coming years unless Petrobras decides to absorb the additional costs for reasons other than the bottom line and the country's soy sector exports less oil in order to save it for increased domestic consumption.
Argentina increases tax on soybean exports to lower food prices
The Argentine government announced its plan to subsidise food products by a 4-percent increase in export tax on soybeans and soy sub-products according to Dow Jones Newswires reports. Export taxes on soybeans will rise to 27.5 percent, while soymeal and soyoil will be taxed at 24 percent.
The increased taxes will raise some US$400 million for the government, which will also contribute US$100 million from the treasury to create the subsidy programme. Apart from domestic wheat flour producers, dairy, pork, poultry and feedlot beef producers will also receive subsidies to compensate for increasing corn feed costs.
US & South America Soybean/Products Balance
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | |||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
3,059 |
6,960 |
12,214 |
2,434 |
514 |
379 |
3,400 |
1,440 |
640 |
|
Production |
85,013 |
83,368 |
87,196 |
39,000 |
40,500 |
41,300 |
53,000 |
55,000 |
56,000 |
|
Imports |
152 |
92 |
109 |
708 |
900 |
950 |
353 |
86 |
100 |
|
Crush |
46,160 |
47,320 |
48,444 |
29,560 |
32,600 |
33,700 |
29,730 |
28,000 |
27,300 |
|
Exports |
30,011 |
25,778 |
31,161 |
10,548 |
7,400 |
7,000 |
22,798 |
25,550 |
26,700 |
|
Other |
5,093 |
5,108 |
4,531 |
1,520 |
1,535 |
1,536 |
2,785 |
2,336 |
2,024 |
|
Usage |
81,264 |
78,206 |
84,136 |
41,628 |
41,535 |
42,236 |
55,313 |
55,886 |
56,024 |
|
Carryout |
6,960 |
12,214 |
15,383 |
514 |
379 |
393 |
1,440 |
640 |
716 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
191 |
156 |
290 |
1,350 |
1,187 |
2,165 |
870 |
640 |
856 |
|
Production |
36,936 |
37,413 |
38,478 |
23,347 |
26,101 |
26,548 |
22,928 |
21,874 |
21,435 |
|
Domestic use |
30,446 |
30,194 |
30,935 |
537 |
573 |
602 |
9,162 |
9,556 |
9,511 |
|
Net Exports |
6,525 |
7,085 |
7,561 |
22,973 |
24,550 |
25,800 |
13,996 |
12,102 |
12,220 |
|
Usage |
36,971 |
37,279 |
38,496 |
23,510 |
25,123 |
26,402 |
23,158 |
21,658 |
21,731 |
|
Carryout |
156 |
290 |
272 |
1,187 |
2,165 |
2,311 |
640 |
856 |
560 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
488 |
771 |
1,346 |
660 |
542 |
712 |
293 |
248 |
450 |
|
Production |
8,781 |
9,250 |
9,124 |
5,404 |
6,228 |
6,397 |
5,708 |
5,352 |
5,233 |
|
Domestic use |
7,910 |
8,169 |
8,709 |
408 |
433 |
563 |
3,059 |
3,168 |
3,205 |
|
Net exports |
588 |
506 |
542 |
5,114 |
5,625 |
5,950 |
2,694 |
1,982 |
2,180 |
|
Usage |
8,498 |
8,675 |
9,251 |
5,522 |
6,058 |
6,513 |
5,753 |
5,150 |
5,385 |
|
Carryout |
771 |
1,346 |
1,219 |
542 |
712 |
596 |
248 |
450 |
298 |
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 04 January 2007
| New | Accum. | New | Accum. | |||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
9.6 |
65.8 |
|
Indonesia |
Soymeal |
1.2 |
15.9 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
252 |
5748.7 |
|
Israel |
Soymeal |
0.8 |
38.3 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
12.9 |
123.1 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
13.5 |
344.6 |
|
Costa Rica |
Soybeans |
0.5 |
80 |
|
Morocco |
Soymeal |
3.5 |
5.5 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
60 |
472.8 |
|
Panama |
Soymeal |
23.8 |
24.2 |
|
Israel |
Soybeans |
59.8 |
141.3 |
|
Philippines |
Soymeal |
3.6 |
110.9 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
29 |
1051.5 |
|
Russia |
Soymeal |
40 |
0 |
|
Korea, Rep. |
Soybeans |
20 |
279.2 |
|
Trinidad |
Soymeal |
0.9 |
11.2 |
|
Malaysia |
Soybeans |
63.7 |
112.4 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
0.3 |
6.4 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
82.1 |
1343 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
2.5 |
25.9 |
|
Panama |
Soybeans |
2.1 |
2.5 |
|
Morocco |
Soyoil |
9.5 |
10.5 |
|
Philippines |
Soybeans |
4.1 |
26.1 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Spain |
Soybeans |
0.3 |
181.3 |
|
|
Outstanding |
Accum. |
New |
|
Turkey |
Soybeans |
0.4 |
291.5 |
|
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
Sales |
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
2.6 |
367.7 |
|
Soybeans |
6,917.80 |
13,591.40 |
576.9 |
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
9.9 |
84.3 |
|
Soymeal |
1,904.80 |
1,712.20 |
101.5 |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
15 |
104.6 |
|
Soyoil |
99.2 |
198.3 |
-1.3 |
