January 12, 2026

 

Brazil at top spot of global beef production last year

 

Brazil surpassed the United States as the world's top beef producer in 2025, according to market estimates, after the South American country beat output forecasts by hundreds of thousands of tonnes, easing a global supply squeeze and helping limit a surge in meat prices.

 

Brazil was already the biggest beef exporter, shipping meat worth almost $17 billion in 2025, according to government trade data released on January 6. Beef production numbers are not due until February, but analysts have recently raised their estimates.

 

Farmers have been sending more animals to slaughter, cashing in on high export demand from countries including China and the US, where low supply has pushed beef prices to record levels.

 

Elevated slaughter typically leads to a period of low output as producers hold back animals to breed and rebuild herds. But productivity gains in Brazil may limit or even prevent a downturn, people in the industry said. They noted that farms have been inseminating cattle quicker, fattening them faster and slaughtering them younger.

 

"Ten years ago, the average age of cattle slaughtered in Brazil was five years," said Vinicius Barbosa, a commercial manager responsible for tens of thousands of cattle at the CMA feedlot in Barretos, about 260 miles (420 km) north of Sao Paulo. "Now it is 36 months and going rapidly to 24."

 

Mauricio Nogueira, head of livestock consultancy Athenagro, said Brazilian beef production far surpassed his forecast in 2025. Output grew 4% for the year, where he had predicted a 2.7% drop. The increase of around 800,000 tonnes was about equal to total annual exports of Argentina, the world's number 5 beef shipper.

 

Rabobank, which had expected Brazil's beef production to decline in 2025, now sees 0.5% growth to 12.5 million tonnes carcass weight equivalent. The US Department of Agriculture in December raised its estimate for Brazilian beef output by 450,000 tonnes to 12.35 million tonnes.

 

If the official numbers confirm market estimates, 2025 will be the first year that Brazil's output will have surpassed US production, which fell 3.9% to 11.8 million tonnes in 2025, according to USDA estimates, following years of drought.

 

Global beef prices will hinge on whether Brazil can avoid a production downturn this year.

 

The USDA expects output in the world's six biggest producers to fall in 2026 by a combined 2.4% – the biggest annual drop in decades – after rising 0.4% in 2025. These producers are Brazil, the US, China, the European Union, Argentina and Australia. The list excludes India, which the USDA names as one of the six top beef producers even though that country produces buffalo meat rather than beef.

 

The USDA expects Brazilian production to fall 5.3% to 11.7 million tonnes carcass weight equivalent this year. If Nogueira's estimates are confirmed and output rises instead to around 12.6 million tonnes, the decline in the top six producers would be just 0.2%.

 

"There has never been so much international demand for Brazilian beef," said Guilherme Jank, a Datagro analyst, adding that local beef packers have also ramped up capacity.

 

"We are witnessing firsthand a significant shift in how the beef cattle supply system works in Brazil, in terms of quality, scale, efficiency, and productivity," he said.

- Reuters