January 14, 2008

US forecasts higher hog slaughter and lower prices in 2008

With the second half of 2007 producing a large pig crop and gains in pigs per litter, the US is looking forward to a higher hog slaughter and lower prices in 2008.

The USDA reduced its 2008 average price forecast for barrows and gilts (live, 51-52 percent lean) to a range of US$41 to US$44 per hundredweight from last month's forecast of US$44 to US$47 and compared to an estimated average price of US$47.09 in 2007.

Hog prices are expected to go as low as US$38 per hundredweight by the fourth quarter of 2008.

The department increased its 2008 pork production forecast to 22.7 billion pounds from 22.2 billion estimate in December and from an estimated 21.9 billion pounds produced in 2007.

However, higher feed costs could compromise weight gains through the year.

Pork exports are expected to reach 3.685 billion pounds from 3.180 billion pounds forecast in December and compared to an estimated 3.160 billion pounds exported in 2007.