January 13, 2020

 

Pork prices in China jump 97% year-on-year in December 2019

 

China's consumer inflation is at an eight year high, rising 4.5% amid the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak which has pushed pork prices by 97% year-on-year, reported South China Morning Post.

 

December 2019's consumer price index (CPI) did not move from November, which was its highest since January 2012 and lower than Bloomberg's analyst poll that estimated a 4.7% growth.

 

According to new data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), food prices within the CPI increased 17.4% in December compared to one year earlier, with pork prices doubling.

 

Beef, chicken, eggs, duck and mutton prices have shot up 7.3% to 20.4%.

 

With pork prices soaring, many families in China will find it hard to serve pork for the upcoming Lunar New Year celebrations, the most consumed meat in the country.

 

However, the 97% price hike is lower than the 110.2% increase in November last year with increased swine production, release of frozen pork from state reserves and more imports of meat from overseas, said Shen Yun, a senior statistician at the NBS.

 

Evans-Pritchard, Capital Economics said swine supplies have increased the most in ten years last month, resulting in a steady 4.5% consumer price inflation and the drop in pork price inflation (from 110% to 97% year-on-year).

 

He added that prices for pork is estimated to steadily drop in the coming quarters, but even if prices remained the same, headline inflation will fall to 2% year-on-year by September 2020.

 

China's government has not confirmed its 2020 inflation target, but recent reports suggest the government is aiming for the 3% range, which is the same as last year.

 

The NBS data showed China's CPI was up 2.9% last year overall, within the official target range.

 

On January 15, negotiators from China and the United States are expected to sign the phase one trade deal in Washington, marking the end of the 18-month trade war.

 

-      South China Morning Post