Slowdown seen in US soy exports over next quarter

US soy exports are likely to slow down in the next three months as new crop supplies from South America enter global markets faster than normal but soyoil exports will remain high.

Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said, "US soy exports are likely to slow down notably in the January-March 2010 quarter due to increasing South American supplies."

It said that farmers in Brazil planted a larger area with early-maturing soy and expects relatively large quantities of new-crop soy to be available in January, adding that Brazilian soy exports will be higher than last year in January-February 2010.

Prospects for the early 2010 soy crop in Brazil and Argentina have improved and there are indications of late extra sowings in Argentina as farmers seek to cash in on attractive world prices, it said.

"We expect that US soy exports to China will slow down pronouncedly in coming months after the record shipments in preceding weeks," it said. China's decision to introduce soy import licenses from January may initially reduce buying by the leading importer, it said.

US soymeal exports were also likely to start slowing in January as South American supplies increase but the outlook for US soyoil exports was more positive with past sales still to be shipped.

Analysts expect the US soyoil exports to remain high in January-March 2010 and probably surpass the level registered in the last quarter. In addition, India could be an important destination for US soyoil, considering that Indian buyers purchased 66,000 tonnes of US soyoil so far this season, it said.

US December 2009 soyoil exports shot up to 145,000 tonnes from only 54,000 tonnes in December 2008, Oil World estimates. This brought US October-December 2009 soyoil exports to 431,000 tonnes against 163,000 tonnes in the same 2008 period, it estimates.