China '09 beef, pork output to rise slightly

China's beef production this year is seen to increase by two percent and pork by three percent, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

Increased input costs and comparatively low net returns have constrained supply growth for beef at 6.4 million tonnes while pork is forecast to reach at 46 million tonnes, still well below pre-blue ear disease or PRRS levels of 52 million tonnes in 2006.

China continues to recover from a devastating outbreak and production may increase is expected by the end of 2009.  Reduced PRRS detections, expected lower feed costs due to a record grain harvest in 2008, and continued government subsidies for sow production will help foster the modest gains.  Pig crop production in 2009 is forecast to increase by three percent based on a one percent increase in the previous year. 

On the other hand, sluggish beef production is contrast to other livestock products which enjoy government support. Low subsidy levels can be partly explained by the fact that beef only accounts for nine percent of China's total meat production and high-end beef market is also small, which is mainly satisfied by imports.  Therefore, beef is not as critical as pork which accounts for over 60 percent of China's total meat production or dairy products that have become more and more important source of nutrition in the country.

For more of the USDA report, please click here