January 12, 2009

 

ASA Weekly: US Nov-Dec soy exports decelerate; China buying slows down

 

 
The soy export pace of 1.09 million tonnes or more per week in October and November has moderated to just over 816,000 tonnes per week during December. This is roughly in line with the weekly pace of 857,000 tonnes that, if retained through February, could be on track to exceed USDA's 2008-2009 export forecast.

 

China continues to account for the majority of US exports, but no longer a dominate buyer. Export inspections for December were an impressive 4.16 million tonnes, which was a record for that month. China continues to account for the vast majority of US exports, as shipments to other destinations have tended to be disappointing. The Census-based export forecast of 29.9 million tonnes looks to be on target, if not a tad low. 

 

Argentina's soy export tax remains unchanged
 

Argentina's president Cristina Fernandez has announced tax cuts to help the country's farm sector survive the global economic downturn, but kept levies on soy unchanged. The government has expanded previously announced tax reductions on corn and wheat exports, lowering rates slightly for small- and medium-sized farmers. The President said the idea is "to create strong incentives for the production and sowing of these two crops because they help to develop a sustainable agricultural program."

 

In early December, the Argentine government unveiled tax cuts on corn and wheat exports as part of a broader stimulus plan that Argentina launched to offset the adverse effects of the global economic crisis.

 

Meanwhile, a group of Argentine lawmakers has presented a bill that would make Argentine farmers exempt from the soy export tax, which is currently 35 percent. Farmers would have to take the money saved from the soy export tax exemption and purchase farm machinery made in the country. It is uncertain how much backing such a bill would have, although there are reports out of the country that some proponents of President Fernandez would support passage of the legislation.
 
US & South America Soy/Products Balance
 
United States 
Argentina
Brazil
Actual
Estimate
Proj.
Actual
Estimate
Proj.
Actual
Estimate
Proj.
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Soy
thousand tonnes
 Carryin
12,229
15,617
5,580
334
1,876
945
2,252
3,110
3,830
 Production
86,770
72,824
79,486
48,800
46,200
50,500
59,000
61,000
59,000
 Imports
246
269
191
2,336
3,025
2,700
108
100
150
 Crush
49,198
49,024
46,675
35,962
35,180
36,700
31,511
31,955
31,500
 Exports
30,428
31,598
28,576
12,132
13,400
14,900
23,805
25,450
25,000
 Other
4,002
2,508
4,422
1,500
1,576
1,600
2,934
2,975
3,025
 Usage
83,628
83,130
79,673
49,594
50,156
53,200
58,250
60,380
59,525
   Carryout
15,617
5,580
5,584
1,876
945
945
3,110
3,830
3,455
Soymeal
thousand tonnes
 Carryin
285
314
267
2,003
1,144
1,200
863
1,563
1,878
 Production
39,058
38,322
36,959
27,856
27,607
28,700
24,420
24,760
24,410
 Domestic use
31,184
30,078
29,484
619
634
660
11,520
12,180
12,600
 Net Exports
7,845
8,291
7,470
28,096
26,917
28,013
12,200
12,265
12,075
 Usage
39,029
38,369
36,954
28,715
27,551
28,673
23,720
24,445
24,675
   Carryout
314
267
272
1,144
1,200
1,227
1,563
1,878
1,613
Soy oil
thousand tonnes
 Carryin
1,365
1,399
1,126
487
310
301
300
341
406
 Production
9,294
9,329
8,868
6,917
6,709
7,017
6,050
6,130
6,040
 Domestic use
8,420
8,313
8,165
580
1,045
1,167
3,550
3,895
3,998
 Net exports
840
1,289
907
6,514
5,673
5,800
2,459
2,170
2,050
 Usage
9,260
9,602
9,072
7,094
6,718
6,967
6,009
6,065
6,048
   Carryout
1,399
1,126
922
310
301
351
341
406
398
 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 01 January 2009

Country

Commodity

 New Sales

Accum.

 

Country

Commodity

 New Sales

Accum.

Exports

 

Exports

China

Soy

444.40

8710.50

 

Panama

Soymeal

3.50

43.80

Costa Rica

Soy

6.60

59.90

 

Turkey

Soymeal

0.80

64.70

Germany

Soy

55.60

422.60

 

Canada

Soyoil

0.60

9.40

Indonesia

Soy

67.50

455.30

 

Guatemala

Soyoil

1.20

5.40

Japan

Soy

57.50

803.80

 

Japan

Soyoil

0.50

0.70

Mexico

Soy

18.00

928.10

 

Mexico

Soyoil

1.30

32.30

Spain

Soy

2.90

271.30

 

 

 

 

 

Taiwan

Soy

65.70

643.80

 

 

 

 

 

Vietnam

Soy

0.50

13.90

 

Export Sales Totals (tmt)

Canada

Soymeal

9.30

273.40

 

Commodity

 Outstanding
Sales

Accum. Exports

New Sales

Jamaica

Soymeal

3.50

26.20

 

Soy

6,576.20

14,305.60

529.70

Mexico

Soymeal

41.60

398.60

 

Soymeal

1,330.80

1,791.00

19.70

Morocco

Soymeal

7.30

22.10

 

Soyoil

94.20

116.60

3.50

 

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