January 11, 2011

China's soy, grain imports up in 2010

Soy and grain imports last year bucked the trend of flat or decreasing imports of industrial metals, with soy intake rising 29% to a record high, China customs data showed Monday (Jan 10).

Imports of grain, particularly corn and wheat, rose strongly last year, but detailed data for the latter two commodities will only be released by the General Administration of Customs later this month.

Soy imports, drawn by surging cooking-oil demand in China, which was a major driver of inflation to three-year highs last year, rose to a record 54.8 million tonnes. Imports in December rose 13.6% from a year earlier to 5.43 million tonnes, even higher than the last Ministry of Commerce forecast late last month.

However, the surge may deplete itself this year, analysts said.

"2011 is going to be a complicated year (for agriculture imports)," an export said. "Although inflationary pressures are still up, credit conditions are tightening."

Data on corn imports aren't expected until around January 22, but are widely expected to register steep increases, as China broke a 15-year run of self-sufficiency last year to import at least 1.5 million tonnes of US corn.

Reinforcing China's return to net-importer status for corn, the government on Monday reported a 1.7% decline in corn exports for 2010, with December exports down 24% from the previous month.

Wheat imports are also expected to have risen in 2010.

However, not all agricultural commodities showed an increase in 2010, in part because of a trade spat with Argentina that halted soyoil imports from the Latin American country, China's largest supplier, for six months. Edible oil imports last year reached 6.87 million tonnes, down 15.8% from 2009, though December imports rose 11% from a year earlier.