January 10, 2024

USDA report reveals mixed trends in December US swine inventory

The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) December Hogs and Pigs report revealed the inventory of all swine in the US on December 1, 2023 at 74.97 million head, a slight increase of 0.88% from the last quarter and 0.02% up from the previous year, Farm Journal's Pork reported.

This marginally higher total was driven by a nearly 0.3% year-on-year rise in market swine, contrasting with a 3.3% decline in the breeding herd compared to the previous year.

The report indicated unexpected trends in weight classes, with lighter swine down less than anticipated and heavier swine exceeding expectations. Despite challenges, the overall number of swine weighing under 180 pounds remains relatively stable compared to the previous year, suggesting consistent supplies for processing plants in the coming months.

The data also highlighted the resilience of the industry, with the September-November swine crop only 0.24% smaller than the previous year. Despite a reduction in farrowings, record-breaking productivity gains with 11.66 swine saved per litter have softened the anticipated fall in swine crop, indicating continued upward productivity trends.

Cold stocks of pork, according to the USDA cold storage report, remain lower than pre-COVID-19 levels, down 5% from the prior month and 8% from a year ago. Poultry and beef stocks exhibit mixed trends, reflecting ongoing market dynamics.

The USDA estimates US per capita pork consumption at 50.2 pounds per person for 2023, with a forecasted increase to 50.6 pounds per person in 2024, remaining below pre-COVID-19 levels.

In the export sector, October saw a 6% increase in US pork exports, with shifts in destination markets. While exports to Mexico rose, shipments to China and Hong Kong declined, contributing to a complex export landscape. Overall, the outlook for swine prices appears bearish for the near term, influenced by factors such as domestic and export demand, farrowing intentions, and supply dynamics.

The forecast suggests quarterly variations in swine prices, with the 1st quarter projected at approximately US$72.72/cwt, rising to US$86.43/cwt and US$92.54/cwt in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, respectively. The 4th quarter is expected to see a decline to $79.55/cwt, reflecting anticipated shifts in demand and supply patterns.

-      Farm Journal's Pork