January 9, 2014

EU soft wheat production set to rise in 2014

In contrast to a combined 2.4-million-tonne fall expected in Germany, France, Spain, Poland, the Czech Republic and Southeast Europe, soft wheat production within the EU is set to increase by a combined 5.8 million tonnes in the UK, Sweden and Denmark.

According to analyst Strategie Grains, soft wheat production in the EU should rise 2% in 2014 to 138.0 million tonnes, supported by an increase in the area sown by farmers.

The analyst said it estimated the soft wheat area in the EU would increase by 4%, outweighing a projected 1% fall in average yield.

Barley production in the EU is forecast to drop sharply next year, losing 8% to 54.5 million tonnes, as the area sown and the average yield are expected to drop by 4%, the analyst said. The overall drop in output would include a combined 4.1-million-tonne decrease in Germany, Spain, the UK and Romania.

Weather in the coming days should remain favourable for the development of winter cereal crops, it said, adding that dry conditions in the Iberian Peninsula needed to be monitored.

For corn, which is sown exclusively in spring, the analyst projected a 2014 crop of 64.7 million tonnes, virtually unchanged from 64.5 million this year. The 2014 forecast took into account a combined 2.2-million-tonne decrease for Romania and Bulgaria and a total 2.4-million-tonne increase for France, Germany, Hungary and Italy.

Due to downward adjustments in Germany, Austria and France, the estimate for the 2013 harvest, which is in its final stages, was revised down by 300,000 tonnes from last month, Strategie Grains said.