January 6, 2012

The state's Rural Economy Department, Deral, said on Thursday (Jan 5) that after weeks of harsh dry weather, Brazil's Parana state cut sharply its forecasts for production of the two crops in the 2011/12 season.

It reduced its forecast for soy to 12.73 million tonnes from its December forecast of 14.12 million tonnes. It lowered its corn estimate to 6.4 million tonnes from 7.4 million tonnes in the previous estimate.

Parana, a southern state, has borne the brunt of a prolonged dry spell in what is usually a wet summer season due to the influence of the La Nina weather anomaly. The same pattern is also threatening No. three soy state Rio Grande do Sul.

The local grains industry association estimated Brazil's national soy output this week at a bumper 74.6 million tonnes, but said it had been unable to evaluate the effect of the dry weather.

Parana's forecast reduction of soy of 1.39 million tonnes represents nearly 2% of national soy output.

A one million tonne cut in Parana's corn forecast equates to 1.6% of national corn production of around 60 million tonnes.

Margorete Demarchi, a Deral agronomist, said the state's worst-affected regions had received just a third of the average rainfall for December.

"Since November, due to the effect of La Nina, the state has been receiving below-average rain, which has compromised the harvest," said Demarchi.

Local meteorologists Somar forecast Thursday the southern region would remain mostly dry apart from a very light sprinkle of rain in parts of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul. The weather would also turn hotter there.

In its extended forecast, Somar predicted rains would fan out across the south of the country between January 9 and 13, but cumulative volumes would be light with no more than 15 millimetres (0.6 inch) in any one area.