January 5, 2023
January Russian wheat exports reach 3.6 million tonnes
Wheat exports from Russia in January are expected to remain high for this period of the July-June marketing season at about 3.6 million tonnes, following a huge 2022 grain crop, Hellenic Shipping News reported.
Early official 2022 data showed Russia, the largest exporter of wheat in the world, harvested a record grain crop of 151 million tonnes after drying and cleaning, including 102.7 million tonnes of wheat.
In January, Russia will export between 3.6 million and 3.8 million tonnes of wheat, according to a note from the IKAR agriculture consultancy. While analysts at Russian rail operator Rusagrotrans estimated the supply at 3.6 million tonnes, Sovecon, another consultancy, estimated January wheat exports at 3.6 million to 4 million tonnes.
The three analysts' predictions for wheat exports in December range from 4.1 million tonnes to 4.5 million tonnes. After beginning what it refers to as its special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, Russia halted the publication of import and export data to prevent "speculation."
The principal grain export route for Russia and Ukraine is the Black Sea.
Global insurers will be put to the test in 2023 as reinsurers raise rates on important business lines by as much as 200% starting on January 1 and decrease their willingness to take on risk in Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, based on reports from reinsurance brokers.
Sovecon said as reinsurance is likely to be difficult, there is a lot of discussion regarding the insurance of ships in the Black Sea in 2023.
At the end of the previous week, prices for Russian wheat with a 12.5% protein content and for immediate supply from Black Sea ports remained stable at US$307 to US$311 per tonne.
Wheat exports may benefit in the short term from the recent decline in the value of the rouble relative to the dollar. The export tax, which Russia sets every week and rises in tandem with the depreciating rouble, will limit its support in the medium term.
The week's low level of domestic trading is a result of the Russian New Year's holidays, which end on January 9.
After recent rains in the south of Russia, Sovecon said the weather is still favourable for the winter grain sowings.
- Hellenic Shipping News