January 05, 2004

China Corn Exports To Fall In 2004

China's corn exports in 2004 are expected to fall sharply from 2003 due to increasing domestic demand, said Shang Qiangmin, Director and chief analyst of China National Grain and Oils Information Center Monday.

He was speaking at the 2004 Grain, Oils and Feed Market Outlook Conference held in Shanghai Monday. The CNGOIC is China's semi-official grains research institution.

While China's corn production in 2003 fell, the demand for corn from domestic stockbreeding and poultry industries is widely expected to rise quickly in 2004. The nation's corn stocks, which have already been in a downward trend, are expected to fall further,

Shang noted the CNGOIC put domestic corn demand at 117.0 million metric tons in the October 2003 to September 2004 marketing year, while total corn production in 2003 is believed to have fallen 6% on year to 114.0 million tons.

Corn produced in the previous year is usually consumed domestically until the new crop arrives on the market in October.

"Since our domestic supply is decreasing amid higher local demand, corn exports in 2004 will fall substantially and (sellers) will offer more corn to the domestic market instead of offering to overseas buyers," Shang explained.

According to figures from Chinese customs, China s corn exports from January to November 2003 reached 13.1 million tons, up 12.0% than the 11.7 million tons exported in 2002.

China's customs are expected to release 2003 corn export figures later this month.