January 4, 2024

StoneX revises down Brazil's soybean crop forecast for 2023/24 amid lack of rain

Agribusiness consultancy StoneX has revised its estimate for Brazil's soybean crop in the 2023/24 season from 161.9 million tonnes to 152.8 million tonnes, citing a lack of rain in crucial agricultural regions, XM reported.

The new forecast eliminates expectations of a record crop in Brazil, the world's leading soybean producer and exporter. This adjustment indicates a decline from the 2022/23 output of 157.7 million tonnes.

StoneX analysts highlighted the irregularity of rainfall last month in key soybean fields, including the top-producing state of Mato Grosso, where a reduction of over 14% in output is anticipated compared to the previous season. The analysts emphasised the ongoing significance of weather conditions, particularly considering variations in soybean planting timelines across different states and some delays in sowing.

They also revised down their projection for Brazil's soybean exports in the current season to 95 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 103 million tonnes, reflecting the impact of reduced supply.

StoneX additionally lowered its forecast for Brazil's overall corn production in 2023/24 to 124.6 million tonnes from 126.0 million tonnes. Weather-related challenges affecting production in northern and north-eastern Brazil contributed to this adjustment.

The first corn crop is expected to reach 25.8 million tonnes, a 2.4% reduction from the December estimate, while the second crop is estimated at 96.6 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 0.8%. Analysts said that due to the significant delay seen in soybean planting, there is a greater chance that a larger part of the second crop will be sown outside the ideal window.

The second crop constitutes approximately 75% of Brazil's annual corn output and is planted after soybean harvesting in the same areas.

-      XM