January 4, 2007

US expansion of hog herd slowing down 
 

Hog expansion would be slowing even as the US hog industry enjoys one of its longest profitable periods in US history, the USDA confirmed. 

The breeding herd, which was 1.8 percent larger than a year earlier on September 1, was up only 1.3 percent on December 1. Winter farrowings are forecast to be up 2.2 percent but spring farrowings up only 0.5 percent.

The cutback is being blamed on high feed prices, especially that of corn, which has  doubled from that of a year ago. However, hog producers have not been known to cut production on feed concerns.

If so, this would mean that the herd slowdown is real and would result in farrowings dropping below year-earlier levels in the second half of 2007.

Fourth quarter hog slaughter turned out to be a bit higher than expected and slaughter is expected to be up 1.4 percent in the first half of 2007.

The larger pig crop during September-November 2006 was mostly due to more pigs per litter, up 1.1 percent compared to a year earlier, than to litters farrowed.

More Canadian hogs have been entering the US this year. Live hog imports in 2006 are expected to total a record 8.7 million head. The number of feeder pigs, barrows and gilts for slaughter and hogs entering the US have all reached records in recent weeks as the Canadian hog industry continue to languish.

The trend is expected to continue in 2007.