January 3, 2025

 

Vietnam's pork prices rise, higher pork production expected this year

 

Vietnam's pig herd had grown by 3.5% year-on-year as of November 2024, according to the country's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

 

In addition, in the past month, pork prices were seen to be on an uptrend, notably ahead of Vietnam's Tet which will start on January 29 this year. Earlier, the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) noted that hog prices were on the rise from January to September — with the average prices, as of September, hitting US$2.53/kilogramme, an increase of 30% from January.

 

On December 8, it was reported by Vietnam.vn that the country's live pig market saw higher prices in several provinces and cities in the week of November 25 - December 1, with live pig prices in many localities reaching ₫64,000/kg (US$2.67/kg).

 

While Vietnam's pig numbers expanded in November, the recent rise in prices hints at a tight supply. Another factor could be related to a drop in the import of fresh chilled pork in the past 11 months compared to the same period in 2023, even as the import of other meats rose.

 

Supply challenges may exacerbate as Vietnam's Law on Animal Husbandry came into effect on January 1, 2025; farmers unable to fulfill environmental standards will more easily suffer credit downgrades triggered by environmental regulations set by the law. The implementation of these regulations will lead to livestock farms relocating as they are not allowed to operate in cities, towns, townships, and residential areas. As such, tens of thousands of livestock farms across Vietnam may be forced to shut down their business, increasing the possibility of further price spikes in pork.

 

Despite the new law that could force the closure of several farms, the country's pork production — based on the USDA's projection — is expected to rise by 3%, reaching 3.8 million tonnes due partially to the better control of African swine fever (ASF). This growth can be attributed to industry consolidation; as pointed out by Rabobank in 2020, "farm consolidation is well underway in Vietnam", and the country's pork production continued to increase against the tide of ASF cases — with growth propelled by large farms expanding their sow herd.

  

"...most of 2021's anticipated growth in pork output will come from large farms," Rabobank stated in its Animal Protein Outlook 2021 report.

 

In the near term, pork prices could increase further as the number of small farms declines and the upcoming Tet pushes up demand. As 2025 progresses, prices may eventually stabilise as major pork producers expand pig herd numbers and increase production.

 

Additionally, a more stabilised situation concerning ASF will go a long way to supporting domestic pork production and keeping meat prices at a more affordable level for consumers.

 

About EFL AG-DATA

 

EFL AG-DATA is a startup incubated by Singapore's Nanyang Technological University's Innovation and Enterprise Company (NTUitive) Incubator Program. It is developing an agricultural hub that will revolutionise the feed-to-meat supply chain in China and Southeast Asia countries through data-driven solutions. EFL's mission is to empower farms through innovative data-based services that solve complex problems and enhance productivity.

- EFL AG-DATA