January 1, 2015


PEDv and Russian trade sanctions to shape 2015 global pig market



International market prospects for pig farmers in 2015 will continue to be shaped by porcine epidemic diarrhoea viral (PEDv) outbreaks and the trade sanctions on Russia over the Ukrainian territorial crisis, according to Rabobank's latest quarterly pork report.


While US pig farmers have successfully overcome the PEDv threat through vaccinations, it is too early to say it won't be coming back in 2015.


Canada has been largely safe from PEDv. But it is not totally immune from the threat especially since next-door neighbours Mexico and the US had outbreaks during the last 18 months.


This year's territorial crisis in Ukraine had sparked off trade sanctions between Russia and the West, thus affecting markets in the EU which was slapped with an import ban by Moscow.


Brazil stands to benefit from Moscow's current food ban against the EU. In September 2014, Brazilian shipments made up 75% of Russia's overall imports. They are expected to rise even further this year.


The USDA sees US sow output increasing by 5% in 2015 to 10.9 million tonnes in terms of carcass weight.


In Europe, the sow herd with farmers expanded by almost 1% in June 2014 compared to prior year levels, which is expected to boost finished pig supplies slightly.


At 45 million head, China's sow numbers are currently at their lowest level since January 2009 as many pig farmers quit due to previous financial losses.


Consequently, Chinese imports this year are expected to swell by as much as 24% from those of 2014.


China's exports to Ireland, meanwhile, is also projected to rise past 30,000 tonnes this year, a 20% jump over 2013.