December 31, 2012

US Q3 2012 hog herd held almost steady

In the third quarter of this year, the US hog herd was nearly steady with year-ago levels, surprising analysts who had expected a slight decline because of feed costs that soared to all-time highs last summer.

The USDA's data showed the US hog herd as of December 1 at 100% of a year ago, or 66.348 million head. Analysts, on average, expected 65.896 million head, or 99.3% of a year earlier.

The US breeding herd was also at 100% over-year or 5.817 million head, compared with average trade expectations for a 0.7% decrease. And, the supply of market-ready hogs came in at 100% at 60.531 million head. Analysts, on average, expected a 0.7% decline or 60.134 million.

Hog futures at Chicago's CME could open lower on Monday (Dec 31) based on Friday's (Dec 21) report, said analysts. But they said market losses before the data's release have factored in some of the report's negative implications.

Also, US budget talks in Washington may have a big influence on the market Monday, when trading volume will be light ahead of the New Year's holiday.