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December 30, 2008
 
India Oilseed Weekly: Oilseed prices on mixed trend (week ended Dec 28, 2008)
 
An eFeedLink Exclusive
 
 
Price Summary

Soy Indore prices again went up for the third week, with a gain of Rs. 827 per tonne and settled at Rs. 18,452 per tonne as compared to last week's closing rate of Rs. 17,625 as on December 20, 2008.  
 
In meal sector, soymeal Indore was also the gainer with Rs. 572 per tonne with soymeal 48 % with a gain of Rs. 400 per tonne.
 
Price of rapeseed decreased heavily by Rs. 4,788 with rapeseed meal also lowering by Rs. 2,075 per tonne respectively.
 
However, sunflower meal price was stable as compared to last week's rate.
 
Prices of Groundnut Extraction (GNE) 40% and GNE 45% slightly increased and traded at Rs. 10,000 and Rs. 10,900 per tonne respectively.
 
 
Market Analysis
 
Prices of oilseeds such as groundnut and sunflower are lower than the minimum support price (MSP) fixed by the Union Government of India.
 
Prices of groundnut are ruling between Rs. 16,000 and Rs. 24,000 per tonne against the MSP of Rs. 21,000, while that of sunflower is between Rs. 19,000 and Rs. 25,000 against the MSP of Rs. 22,150 per tonne.
 
Prices of soy are however, much higher at over Rs. 18,000 a tonne against the MSP of Rs. 13,900 per tonne.
 
"Soy prices are higher than MSP because the government has imposed 20 percent customs duty on soy oil imports, while futures have also resumed," said trade dealer.
 
Mustard and rapeseed acreage on the rise in some areas
 
Rapeseed and mustard 2007-2008 output fell by 5.80 million tonnes, following two years' bumper levels of 7.44 million tonnes and 8.13 million tonnes respectively.
 
But this year, buoyed by good price realizations, farmers sown 6.518 million hectares (MH) under the crop, compared to the 5.811 MH covered in the corresponding period of 2007-08.
 
Area has risen in Rajasthan (2.369 to 2.766 MH), Uttar Pradesh (0.785 to 0.877 MH), Madhya Pradesh (0.670 to 0.791 MH), Haryana (0.499 to 0.625 MH) and West Bengal (0.425 to 0.435 MH); while dipping marginally in Gujarat (0.339 to 0.294 MH).
 
Acreages are higher relative to last year for the bulk of other rabi cereals (corn, jowar, barley), oilseeds (sunflower, groundnut, sesamum).
 
 
Market Forecast
 
Soy
 
Prices are firm on good domestic demand amid decrease in arrivals. Strong exports amid global shortages in edible oil may result in firm trading in futures.
 
Mustard
 
Mustard prices are steady on subdued trading and lower arrivals. Speculation of dip in output due to fall in acreage may raise prices under expectation of low procurement in-spite of increased minimum support price (MSP).
 
Groundnut
 
Prices are steady on firm demand. Futures are bullish due to expectation of strong exports through low global price is discouraging exporters.
 
Guar Seed
 
Prices witness upward correction as arrivals decrease. Lower output in Pakistan may support the prices in the long term as the arrivals start decreasing in a few weeks.
 

The comparison rates of nine commodities like Soy/ Peanut/ Rapeseed/ Sunflower and their meals

Commodities

Prices as on Dec 20

Prices as on Dec 27

Difference

   Soy (Indore)

       17, 625

         18, 452 

           + 827

   Soy Meal 48%

       13, 294

              13, 866      

                   + 572         

   Soymeal Indore

        14, 000  

         14, 400 

          + 400

   Peanut Kernal

       22, 797

         22, 595

          - 202

   Peanut Meal

         9, 900

         10, 800

          + 900

   Rapeseed

       31, 648

         26, 860

        - 4, 788  

   Rapeseed Meal

       11, 175 

           9, 100

      - 2, 075

   Sunflower

       28, 500

         28, 000

          - 500 

   Sunflower Meal 

         9, 400

           9, 400

         Stable 

US$1 = INR 48.53 (Dec 30, 2008)

 


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