December 28, 2007
Expect more US meat exports in 2008
The US would likely see strong increases in exports of beef and pork while broiler exports is expected to remain relatively stable, according to USDA's latest red meat and poultry forecast.
Prospects for beef were the best for all. Despite an anticipated drop in production, beef exports are expected to rise 19 percent from the previous year to 1.7 billion pounds.
Pork exports are also expected to do well, with a 4.6 percent increase expected, which means 3.18 billion pounds being exported.
Even though a 4-million pound increase is expected in broiler exports, it barely registers as an increase over the previous year (0.07 percent) given the 5.6 billion pounds expected.
Still, chicken would contribute the largest volume of any meat exported, followed by pork and beef.
While pork and broiler production would rise 1.8 percent and 2.7 percent respectively in 2008 compared to 2007, beef production would decline by 1.3 percent.
Beef production still leads pork production although the former is closing the gap. Beef production is expected at 26 billion pounds in 2008 while pork production is expected at 22.2 billion pounds.
Broiler still tops all meats in terms of volume produced, at 36.85 billion pounds.
Total red meat production would rise 1.2 percent to 91.85 billion pounds.
Meanwhile, pork and broiler prices are expected to have fallen sharply in the fourth quarter this year, are expected to pick up in the next successive quarters, possibly returning to Q3 2007 levels by the third quarter next year.
USDA's information can be found at http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldp/LDPTables.htm
|
|
Q1 2007 |
Q2 2007 |
Q3 2007 |
Q4 2007 |
Q1 2008 |
Q2 2008 |
Q3 2008 |
|
Choice steers, Neb $/cwt |
90.61 |
93.45 |
91.76 |
92-93 |
89-93 |
88-96 |
86-94 |
|
Broilers 12-city cents/lb |
75 |
80.3 |
79.2 |
70-71 |
70-74 |
72-78 |
73-79 |
|
Barrows & gilts $/cwt |
46.04 |
52.55 |
50.34 |
38-39 |
40-42 |
45-49 |
47-51 |
Source: USDA
