December 28, 2006
ASA weekly: Average soy oil yield for 2006; export volumes low
Last week's NOPA report reflected a further decline in the soybean oil yield as high-oil content 2005-crop soybeans were used up and new-crop soybeans entered the pipeline.
The NOPA oil yield dropped to a Census equivalent of 11.12 pounds per bushel in November from 11.33 pounds the previous month. The oil yield of this year¡¯s soybean crop seems to have been undermined by September temperatures that were the coolest since 1993.
The considerable drop in the oil content of exported soybeans since early October hinted that the decline in the oil yield for November might be larger than normal.
Total grain and soybean export inspections since Sept 1 have trended at or below the 10-year average mark. Since Sept 1, exports have totalled 29.7 million tonnes through Nov 30, slightly behind the pace for the same time period last year.
Exports are being held lower by weaker wheat, sorghum and barley exports, and a slowdown in soybean shipments during November. Corn exports, the only silver lining in this year¡¯s programme, increased by 9 percent year-over-year during the Q1 at more than 13.6 million tonnes.
US grain and soybean exports for 2006-07 are forecast at 118 million tonnes, 4 percent higher than last year.
Exports through the Centre Gulf are running 24 percent ahead of last year¡¯s pace at 17 million tonnes and slightly ahead of the 10-year average. Exports are supported by corn and soybean programmes that are off to a good start, and a landed price advantage into Asia over the PNW with freight spread that has been supportive. Centre Gulf exports for 2006-07 are forecast at 65.3 million tonnes, 14 percent higher than last year.
The PNW export programme has been beset by weakened wheat exports and slower corn exports as compared to last year. Loading delays due to weather in the PNW have also slowed exports.
Soybeans started off fast, up 30 percent year-over-year through October, then slowed to being up 3 percent through November. Exports through the PNW are forecast at 28 million tonnes, 3 percent below last year.
Meanwhile, falling barge rates may be pointing to a significant weakness in demand. But this concern is largely associated with comparisons to last year¡¯s spikes following hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
Bipartisanship to guide upcoming Farm Bill debate
Former Senate Agriculture Committee chairman Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) says he and incoming chairman Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) see eye-to-eye on many aspects of federal farm policy and that farmers should not worry about a sudden shift of that policy when the next farm bill is written.
Speaking to an audience in Georgia last week, Chambliss said he hopes 2007 will bring solutions to two difficult challenges: immigration and passing a workable farm bill.
As for a new farm bill, Chambliss said he does not support an extension of the current legislation. The current farm bill, he said works well for most producers, and noted that if a farmer did not have a positive cash flow under this farm bill, he hasn¡¯t been managing his operation properly.
He termed the 2002 farm bill as the most market-oriented bill ever in place.
|
US & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
May-04 |
Jun-05 |
Jul-06 |
May-04 |
Jun-05 |
Jul-06 |
May-04 |
Jun-05 |
Jul-06 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
3,059 |
6,960 |
12,214 |
2,434 |
514 |
379 |
3,400 |
1,440 |
640 |
|
Production |
85,013 |
83,368 |
87,196 |
39,000 |
40,500 |
41,300 |
53,000 |
55,000 |
56,000 |
|
Imports |
152 |
92 |
109 |
708 |
900 |
950 |
353 |
86 |
100 |
|
Crush |
46,160 |
47,320 |
48,444 |
29,560 |
32,600 |
33,700 |
29,730 |
28,000 |
27,300 |
|
Exports |
30,011 |
25,778 |
31,161 |
10,548 |
7,400 |
7,000 |
22,798 |
25,550 |
26,700 |
|
Other |
5,093 |
5,108 |
4,531 |
1,520 |
1,535 |
1,536 |
2,785 |
2,336 |
2,024 |
|
Usage |
81,264 |
78,206 |
84,136 |
41,628 |
41,535 |
42,236 |
55,313 |
55,886 |
56,024 |
|
Carryout |
6,960 |
12,214 |
15,383 |
514 |
379 |
393 |
1,440 |
640 |
716 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
191 |
156 |
290 |
1,350 |
1,187 |
2,165 |
870 |
640 |
856 |
|
Production |
36,936 |
37,413 |
38,478 |
23,347 |
26,101 |
26,548 |
22,928 |
21,874 |
21,435 |
|
Domestic use |
30,446 |
30,194 |
30,935 |
537 |
573 |
602 |
9,162 |
9,556 |
9,511 |
|
Net Exports |
6,525 |
7,085 |
7,561 |
22,973 |
24,550 |
25,800 |
13,996 |
12,102 |
12,220 |
|
Usage |
36,971 |
37,279 |
38,496 |
23,510 |
25,123 |
26,402 |
23,158 |
21,658 |
21,731 |
|
Carryout |
156 |
290 |
272 |
1,187 |
2,165 |
2,311 |
640 |
856 |
560 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
488 |
771 |
1,346 |
660 |
542 |
712 |
293 |
248 |
450 |
|
Production |
8,781 |
9,250 |
9,124 |
5,404 |
6,228 |
6,397 |
5,708 |
5,352 |
5,233 |
|
Domestic use |
7,910 |
8,169 |
8,709 |
408 |
433 |
563 |
3,059 |
3,168 |
3,205 |
|
Net exports |
588 |
506 |
542 |
5,114 |
5,625 |
5,950 |
2,694 |
1,982 |
2,180 |
|
Usage |
8,498 |
8,675 |
9,251 |
5,522 |
6,058 |
6,513 |
5,753 |
5,150 |
5,385 |
|
Carryout |
771 |
1,346 |
1,219 |
542 |
712 |
596 |
248 |
450 |
298 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 14 December 2006 | ||||||||
|
|
|
New |
Accum. |
|
|
|
New |
Accum. |
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
0.70 |
59.50 |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
11.40 |
94.50 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
235.30 |
4912.10 |
|
Honduras |
Soymeal |
1.80 |
25.20 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
3.60 |
119.50 |
|
Israel |
Soymeal |
14.50 |
30.00 |
|
Costa Rica |
Soybeans |
17.30 |
74.50 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
10.90 |
73.40 |
|
Cuba |
Soybeans |
4.50 |
57.00 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
12.20 |
248.30 |
|
Egypt |
Soybeans |
60.00 |
300.70 |
|
Nicaragua |
Soymeal |
10.00 |
17.10 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
3.00 |
460.80 |
|
Panama |
Soymeal |
3.20 |
23.30 |
|
Israel |
Soybeans |
8.00 |
107.50 |
|
Philippines |
Soymeal |
33.60 |
92.10 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
38.50 |
948.60 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
1.50 |
5.90 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
49.10 |
116.30 |
|
China |
Soyoil |
0.30 |
35.30 |
|
Morocco |
Soybeans |
21.70 |
84.40 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
4.10 |
23.70 |
|
Netherlands |
Soybeans |
1.40 |
648.60 |
|
Salvador |
Soyoil |
0.60 |
4.20 |
|
Spain |
Soybeans |
121.70 |
114.00 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
99.90 |
638.10 |
|
|
Outstanding |
Accum. |
New |
|
UAE |
Soybeans |
50.00 |
124.10 |
|
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
Sales |
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
21.00 |
299.30 |
|
Soybeans |
7,010.60 |
11,545.30 |
741.90 |
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
9.30 |
67.10 |
|
Soymeal |
2,016.90 |
1,320.00 |
117.30 |
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
14.50 |
95.30 |
|
Soyoil |
115.00 |
118.20 |
6.50 |
