December 27, 2013

In 2013-14, world oilseed crushing is forecast to climb to a record as more soy and sunflower seeds are processed, with the outlook raised from September on increased expectations for rapeseed crush, Oil World said.

In the year through September, crush of 10 major oilseeds may jump to 405.1 million tonnes from 387.7 million tonnes a year earlier, the Hamburg-based researcher said in an e-mailed report. The group in September had forecast crushing of 401.1 million tonnes.

Oilseeds including soy and rapeseed are crushed to produce vegetable oils and meal used to feed livestock. Soy futures dropped 6.4% this year on the Chicago Board of Trade as the Department of Agriculture forecast a record global soy crop of 284.9 million tonnes in 2013-14.

World production of seed oils probably will rise to 105.7 million tonnes from 101 million tonnes, while meal output is predicted to rise to 279 million tonnes from 266.5 million tonnes.

Processing of soy will rise to 237.6 million tonnes from 225.7 million tonnes, similar to a September outlook for 237.3 million tonnes. Oil World raised its estimate for rapeseed crushing to 62.8 million tonnes from an earlier outlook of 60.4 million tonnes, and up from 61.7 million tonnes in 2012-13.

Sunflower seed crush is forecast to climb to 36.2 million from 32.1 million tonnes, up from the September outlook for 35.8 million tonnes.

Oil World estimates that oilseed processing in China, the world's biggest soy consumer, will rise to 92.2 million tonnes from 90.7 million tonnes. Crushing in the US is seen slipping to 50.1 million tonnes from 50.5 million tonnes.

"In the US, soy crushings are on track to increase by about 0.2 million tonne in the first quarter, but in the full 2013-14 season, stagnation appears likely in view of the rapid depletion of soy stocks by the record export commitments," the researcher said.

EU oilseed crush may climb to 43.5 million tonnes from 43 million tonnes, based on Oil World's estimates. Brazil may process 40.3 million tonnes of oilseeds from 36.8 million tonnes in 2012-13, while Argentina may lift its crush to 40.7 million tonnes from 36.7 million tonnes.