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December 27, 2011

Thai Feed Weekly:  Corn prices expected to rise up to 20% in the first half of 2012 (week ended Dec 19)
 
An eFeedLink Exclusive
 
 
Price Summary
 
Prices of Thailand's feed raw materials has softened further on the eve of the five-day year-end holidays, with soymeal, cassava and rice bran residues posting comparatively higher declines.
 
The almost across-the-board price fall, however, is customary about this time of year when demand slows down as feed mill plants prepared for a few days' break in operations.
 
 
Market analysis
 
What livestock operators consider more telling is the corn's marginal price decline - THB.05/kg for grains delivered to feed factories or THB16/kg for those bought direct from silos. Industry leaders interpret the tiny price drop as an indication of the commodity's price strength in the face of an anticipated production shortfall.
 
Thailand's recent severe flooding, according to Kasikorn Research Centre, destroyed about two million hectares of croplands planted largely to rice and corn.  As a result, the Thai Feed Mill Association expects corn output to drop by as much as one million tonne in the 2011-2012 cropping cycle.
 
The anticipated supply crunch has sent corn prices soaring from about THB8/kg before the flood to the current price of THB10/kg, says Ekasit Konzu, general manager of Chaveevan Farm in Chonburi Province.
 
He expects local corn prices to further escalate by as much as 20% in the next six months due to the tight supply situation. Worse, he adds, while its price is high, the quality of the local corn available in the market is poor because of high moisture content.
 
This has driven Thai demand for Lao and Cambodian corn further up, says Ekasit. However, increased competition from other foreign buyers, such as China, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia and even Taiwan have pushed prices of corn imports from Laos and Cambodia up.
 
Even before the flood, Thailand's corn imports from Laos had already been on the rise. From January to October 2011, they had reached 138,498 tonnes, 37% more than the 101,215 tonnes it imported during the same period last year.    
 
On-going expansions in Thailand's broiler sector are expected to drive domestic feed demand to more than 14 million tonnes in 2012. This year, local feed production is seen to have expanded by about 14% owing to increased chicken and shrimp productions.
 

 

PRICE as of  Dec 12
(in Thai baht/kg)

PRICE as of  Dec 19
(in Thai baht/kg)

Changes
(in Thai baht/kg)

Corn (Delivered to feed factory)

9.90-10.05

9.90-10.00

-0.05

Cassava

2.45-2.50

2.25-2.35

-0.15-0.20

White Broken Rice A.1 Super (US$/tonne)

556.00

556.00

--

White rice bran

8.30-8.50

8.10-8.30

-0.2

Rice bran residue 

8.20-8.30

7.40-7.60

 -0.70-0.80

Soy

11.60-14.45

11.60-14.45

--

Soymeal (imported)

14.50

14.20

-0.20

Soymeal (local)

14.20-14.50

14.00-14.20

-0.20-0.30

Fishmeal (shrimp grade)

25.00-37.98

25.00-37.98

--

US$1=THB 31.43 (Dec 27, 2011)

 

 
 
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