eFeedLink - China Methionine Weekly: Diminishing livestock inventories dampen demand (week ended Dec 26, 2008)

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December 27, 2008

China Methionine Weekly: Diminishing livestock inventories dampen demand (week ended Dec 26, 2008)

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Price summary

Prices were lower in most regions.

Quotes for dl-methionine in the general markets were at RMB48.50-49.50/kg. Overall, average transacted price (delivered-to-feed-mill) was RMB48.39/kg, down RMB0.45/kg compared with a week ago.

Liquid methionine* quotes in the general market had dropped to RMB39.00-40.00/kg while actual transacted prices (delivered-to-feed-mill) were at RMB38.00-39.00/kg.

Weekly transacted prices of dl-methionine in China
Area	Week 51	Week 52	Price change (RMB/kg)
Area	Dec 13 - Dec 19 (RMB/kg)	Dec 20 - Dec 26 (RMB/kg)	Price change (RMB/kg)
Guangzhou	48.50	48.30	-0.20
Chengdu	48.90	48.30	-0.60
Jinan	49.00	48.50	-0.50
Nanjing	48.90	48.40	-0.50
Shijiazhuang	48.80	48.30	-0.50
Zhengzhou	48.80	48.30	-0.50
Shenyang	49.00	48.70	-0.30
Beijing	48.80	48.30	-0.50
Prices refer to delivered-to-feedmill prices, and are for reference only.

*Weekly transacted prices of liquid methionine in China**
Area	Week 51	Week 52	Price change (RMB/kg)
Area	Dec 13 - Dec 19 (RMB/kg)	Dec 20 - Dec 26 (RMB/kg)	Price change (RMB/kg)
North	39.50	39.00	-0.50
Central	39.00	38.50	-0.50
South	38.50	38.00	-0.50
Prices refer to delivered-to-feedmill prices, and are for reference only. RMB1=US$0.1462 (Dec 27, 2008)

Global markets

In Europe, 1Q2009 price quotes for methionine were at Euro4.40-4.50/kg, with large quantity transactions lower at Euro4.30/kg.

Market analysis

Demand for feed and thus methionine weakened as livestock inventories fell amid higher release volumes. Methionine prices dropped consequently.

Meanwhile, one European producer has reportedly planned to reduce its methionine supply to China.

Market forecast

Higher prices in the international market and reduced global supply will lend some support to China's methionine prices. Nevertheless, methionine prices are still seen weaker in China in the near term on poor market fundamentals.

*Commonly referred to in China as liquid methionine is methionine hydroxyl analogue, a liquid source of supplemental methionine.

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