Forecast for China soy takes an upturn

China's commerce ministry has revised up its forecast for soy imports in December to 4.58 million tonnes, from its earlier estimate of 3.87 million tonnes.

The ministry's forecast was below expectations of the country's top planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which sees record imports for December, or larger than the 4.71 million tonnes in June.

High crushing margins prompted Chinese crushers to order 17.57 million tonnes in 2009-2010 from the United States, the world's largest exporter. The amount was higher than 10.7 million tonnes at the same time a year earlier, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

So far, Beijing's stockpiling of domestic new soy crop has supported strong domestic prices.

The ministry in its latest report expects rapeseed imports in December to reach 244,442 tonnes, up from its previous forecast of 161,439 tonnes. The ministry's forecast, based on reports from buyers, fails to catch all shipments, but provides a reference for buyers to gauge supply.