December 23, 2003

 

 

Insight Into Pakistan's Emerging Wheat Crisis

 

Pakistan may have to resort to importing wheat to meet current demands following three years of self-sufficiency.

Pakistan made an important breakthrough in the year 2000 by not only achieving self-sufficiency in wheat production, but also by being able to become a wheat exporting country.

With bumper wheat crop during the last three years, Pakistan, besides meeting the domestic needs, exported the surplus stocks to many countries as well. This has placed Pakistan as a potential competitor to India in the Gulf and Middle Eastern markets, for which we had dreamt long ago.

The emergence of Pakistan as an exporter of wheat, thereby ending the prolonged dependence on imports, had filled the people of the country with a genuine sense of pride about its agricultural potential. For a predominantly agricultural country the reversal of the situation is really a cause of anxiety for the whole nation.

Among the wheat producing country, Pakistan stands at 10th place in terms of area and 59th in terms of yield. It is the seventh-largest wheat producer of the world, accounting for 2.73% of the world's wheat production from an area of 3.57% of the world's growing area.

Wheat accounts for 37% of Pakistan's total cropped area. The contribution of wheat in the value-added agriculture of the country stands at 12.5% and its share in the GDP is little over 3%.

At present, with the exception of Punjab, it is feared that all other provinces will face wheat shortage early next year. News reports suggest that the current stocks of Sindh, NWFP and Balochistan will be exhausted by the end of February 2004. Sindh is expected to face a deficit of 100,000 tons, the NWFP a deficit of 65,000 tons and Balochistan of 165,000 tons.

The looming wheat crisis in Sindh has turned out to be more severe where flour prices have already risen by 20%, particularly in Karachi and Hyderabad. Given this state of affairs, one wonders why the wheat situation in the country is mismanaged in such a way that the common man has to suffer most as a consequence.

It is time that the government must clarify this confusion about stocks and supplies. The shortage of wheat, the primary staple food, poses a vital question.
 

The controversy regarding availability of reliable statistical data of demand and supply of wheat is evident from the fact that on the one hand the government has decided to import 0.5 million tons of wheat, whereas on the other hand the Trading Corporation of Pakistan has exported around 0.25 million tons of wheat this year.

At a time when common man is suffering due to poor supply and costly availability of flour, the government, flourmills association and exporters/traders have come up with their own version about this shortage.

The federal minister for food and agriculture, Sardar Yar Mohammad Rind, still believes that the country has sufficient wheat stock despite the decision of the cabinet, whom he himself represent, to import 0.5 million tons of wheat.

The minister is of the view that the current crisis is not genuine and a result of hoarding by some vested interests. It seems very surprising that the federal minister, who is a firm believer that vested interests have caused this crisis by hoarding of the wheat stock, is helpless in pinpointing the hoarders and taking any action against them.

The Sindh provincial Food and Agriculture Minister, Mr. Arif Mustafa Jatoi, on the other hand blames the flour mills for this price hike and shortages which have not lifted stocks according to their agreement with the government. However the flour mills association has its own story to tell.

It says that most of the wheat on offer through the Sindh government is of inferior quality and needs to be blended with good quality wheat which is not freely available.

They have charged that surplus stock of wheat purchased by the Sindh government during 1999-2000, which was kept in the provincial godowns, had now become unfit for human consumption. It said that huge quantity of wheat almost three million bags had been spoiled and out of this 700,000 bags had been auctioned at the rate of Rs 3.37 per kg.

It would be worthwhile to note that when the country got bumper wheat production during 1999-2000. President Mushrraf during a special meeting to review the insufficient storage capacity of the country directed the concerned departments to build new godowns urgently for storing this surplus wheat. But unfortunately his orders are yet to be implemented for reasons best known to our bureaucracy.

Had the presidential orders been implemented then, the country would have never lost the millions of tons of wheat and need to import 0.5 million tons of wheat might have not arisen. A thorough inquiry is required to be made into the wastage of this huge quantity of wheat in Sindh and its auction at a throwaway price in which closed aides of the high-ups of Sindh are reported to be involved.

Another reason for shortage of wheat is the delay in crushing of sugarcane, which usually starts in September-October every year. This alarming wheat production crisis has also been due to the extraordinary countrywide delay in the start of the sugar cane crushing season as millions of acres of land meant for wheat sowing was occupied by sugar crop.

It would be interesting to note that one-day delay in the crushing season means non-cultivation of wheat on 4,500 acres because wheat is cultivated on the same land, which is cleared after harvesting of sugar cane crop.

Due to the extension given to sugar millers for starting crushing and pre-occupation of land in Sindh and some areas of Punjab by sugar cane crop the wheat sowing has been delayed significantly therefore it is very unlikely that the set target of 20 million tons for the coming season is achieved. No one would deny the fact that timely sowing of not only wheat but of all crops has the most vital role on the yield of the crop.

The federal government has proposed a target of about 8.2 million hectares for wheat cultivation in the four provinces for year 2003-2004 with an expected production target of 20 million tons. To attract the growers to enlarge the area to wheat cultivation, the government has also enhanced the support price by Rs 50 per 40 kg of wheat.

Many agriculturists, however, disagree with the government claim that the increase in the support price can be a big incentive alone to raise wheat production. They are of the view that the only way to increase wheat production is either to increase acreage or increase yield.

Though wheat acreage, production and per hectare yield has risen significantly since 1990 but it has grown at a much smaller rate compared to the population.

Further, timely availability of other inputs like fertilizer, certified seed, credit, and water and, of course, favourable climatic conditions do play an important role in achieving the higher yield results.

Pakistan needs some 55,000 tons of wheat every day to meet the local demand. The provincial food departments calculate per capita consumption at 124 Kgs, However, the Agricultural Prices Commission estimates at 135 Kgs, making an allowance for smuggling, leakages and under-reporting.

 

At this rate for a population of 150 million, total requirements will work out to be 20.25 million tons. With one million tons required for food security, 21.25 million tons of wheat will be needed during the year 2003-04, which still leaves a deficit of 1.25 million tons. There is no mentioning at the federal government level as to where from this shortfall will be met in the following year.

A major breakthrough in the agriculture sector, particularly in wheat crop, is required to avert the catastrophic situation in the near future. In spite of a high fertilizer usage which equals that of many developed countries, Pakistan is well behind the wheat producing countries as far as the per hectare yield is concerned.

It not only trails much low behind UK, the top per hectare wheat producer of the world at 7.7 tons but also India, which produces 2.5 tons of wheat per hectare as compared to Pakistan's 2.1 tons per hectare.

To become not only a self-sufficient country in wheat but an exporter as well, Pakistan has all the required basic ingredients such as fertile land, sufficient irrigation water, hard working farmers, certified wheat varieties and modern technology in abundance, provided these are utilized to full potential, which is only possible, if there is a firm will on the part of our planners and policy makers.