December 22, 2006

Brazil's soy crop in good shape as harvest approaches

As the year draws to a close and some states prepare to harvest soon, Brazil's 2006/07 crop continues to look like it's going to be a record breaker, farm consultants said Thursday (Dec 21).

"There are some dry spells in pockets of Rio Grande do Sul, but any regional weather concerns at this point will be made up for by good yields throughout nearly all of Brazil," said Anderson Galvao Gomes, a consultant at Celeres.

Back in November, Gomes estimated a 2006/07 soy crop total at 54 million tonnes. But now he suspects it to be closer to 56 million tonnes, which is about 2 million tonnes above the official estimate.

Meteorologists are predicting normal rainfall for January, but above normal temperatures.

Some regions of northern Mato Grosso will start harvesting next week, said Steve Cachia, a market analyst at brokerage firm Cerealpar.

"This is going to be one of the best crops in five years in southern Brazil," said Andre Debastiani, a consultant at Agroconsult. Agroconsult has put the crop at 56 million tonnes.

"The critical point now is going to be in the centre-west during January harvest because that's the rainy season. They planted earlier this year and so will harvest earlier and that could be a problem. For the meantime, everything is going well," Debastiani said.

Brazil is the world's no. 2 soy producer and exporter behind the US.