December 22, 2006

 

Brazil's soy registrations at 27.8 million tonnes for 2006/07

 

 

Registrations of Brazilian soybean exports for market year 2006/07 have now surpassed the estimated 25.2 million tonnes that Brazil was expected to export this year as of Dec 15, the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) said Thursday (Dec 21).

 

Some 27.8 million tonnes of soybeans have been registered for export as of Dec 15.

 

Registrations are sales commitments, but do not necessarily reflect actual final market-year numbers--because registration commitments can be aborted.

 

Abiove put Brazil's 2005/06 soy crop production total at 55.7 million tonnes, the highest of the private 2005/06 crop estimates. Most estimates had put the crop around 53 million tonnes. The crop is fully harvested. Brazil is currently preparing for the 2006/07 soy crop, to be sold in market year 2007/08.

 

Brazil has more soybeans registered for export at this time than it has over the last five years, Abiove reported, due to the ongoing international demand from Europe and Asia.

 

Brazil's 2006/07 soy crush rose to 28.1 million tonnes compared with 27.8 million tonnes in the last report. It is still Brazil's lowest crush in three years.

 

 

Soy derivatives

 

Soymeal registrations for the market year 2006/07 rose to 12.5 million tonnes compared with 12 million tonnes two weeks ago. Abiove expects roughly 12.4 million tonnes of soymeal to be exported in market year 2006/07, the lowest volume in four years.

 

Brazil has been losing market share in the soymeal markets because of a tax law that favours the export of raw material, competition from Argentina, and a growing soy crush in China, according to industry consensus.

 

Soyoil export registrations to Dec 15 were flat at 2.4 million tonnes. Registrations are the lowest they have been for this time of year since 2002/03, when 2 million tonnes were registered for shipments.

 

Abiove maintained its total 2006/07 soyoil export forecast of 2.2 million tonnes, the lowest soyoil export volume since 2002/03 when 2 million tonnes were shipped abroad.

 

Soyoil export registrations were put at 110 percent of Abiove's estimate as of Dec 15, compared with 107 percent registered in market year 2005/06 and 122 percent of the estimate committed for export in market year 2004/05.

 

Brazil is the world's no. 2 soybean producer after the US.