December 22, 2003

 

 

Projected Increase in Brazilian Soybean Production

 

According to the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove), Brazilian soybean production in the 2003-04 season (October-September) will reach 58.1 million metric tons.

 

The group raised its estimate by 400,000 tons compared with last month. The crop is now seen 13.5% higher than the 51.2 million tons produced last season.

 

Abiove's third estimate for the coming crop, for which planting is just finishing, is slightly lower than the government's official figure of 58.8 million tons, released last week, and down from the 60 million tons forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

 

The extra soybeans will be crushed, according to Abiove. Brazilian crushers will process 31.5 million tons in the 2004-05 marketing season (February-January), up 12.5% from an estimated 28.0 million tons this season.

 

The increased crush will also eat into stocks. The end-of-year stock estimate was lowered to 994,000 tons from 1.094 million tons in the latest report. But carryover remains sharply higher than the 294,000 tons at the start of this marketing cycle and the carryover average for recent years.

 

The soybean export estimate for 2004-05 was maintained at 25.2 million tons, up 17% from the 21.5 million tons seen shipped in 2003-04.

 

Crushing activities slowed in November as Brazil entered its inter- harvest period.

 

In November, soybean crushing totaled 2.041 million tons, down from the 2.225 million tons processed in October and also lower than last November's total of 2.223 million tons.

 

In the Feb-Nov period, Brazil crushed 21.7 million tons, well down on the 28 million tons forecast for the 2003-04 marketing year (February-January).

 

Soymeal production reached 1.570 million tons in November, down from 1.710 million tons in October.

 

Feb-Nov soymeal production totaled 16.68 million tons, shy of the 21.8- million-ton estimate for 2003-04.

 

Production is expected to rise to 24.5 million tons next year.

 

Soymeal exports last month reached 1.069 million tons, down slightly from 1.126 million tons the month before.

 

In 2003-04, exports are seen totaling 14.1 million tons, rising to 16.4 million tons next year.

 

Soyoil production reached 397,000 tons in November, down from 428,000 tons in October.

 

Soyoil production is seen totaling 5.40 million tons in 2003-04, rising to 5.90 million in the 2004-05 crop year.

 

In 2004-05, soyoil exports are forecast to rise 21% to 2.9 million tons.

 

The crushers forecast 2004 soy complex exports should reach a new record, totaling $10.92 billion, up from an estimated $8.28 billion in 2003.