December 20, 2011
SovEcon sees decline in Russian grain cargoes
SovEcon believes that shipments of Russian grain may decline from 2.77 million in November to 2.2 million tonnes in December, and will show an extra slump in January 2012.
A significant decline of stocks in southern export oriented regions and the need to deliver grain to Black Sea ports from distant regions raises expenses and cuts the competitiveness of Russian cereals.
As a result, Russia lost its dominant position at the latest Egyptian tender.
It is the market and not administrative restrictions that will lead to a significant decline of Russian grain exports in the first half of the 2012 calendar year, SovEcon believes.
Wheat exports in November declined by 200,000 tonnes to 2.1 million tonnes and total exports from July to the end of November reached a record 13 million tonnes.
Barley exports declined less but they also were at a record high.