Brazil's 2013-14 soy harvest may hit record
While the pace of soy trades in Brazil has been sluggish towards the end of the year and prices are almost nominal, the focus is on the development of the 2013-14 crop, which may register a record production.
In general terms, rains were irregular in almost all producing regions in Brazil at the beginning of planting activities, which favoured the attack of Helicoverpa armigera caterpillar and, most recently, registers of soy rust. However, players surveyed by the Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia (CEPEA) say that plagues and fungi were controlled due to their identification at the beginning of activities on the field.
At the beginning of the month USDA data indicated that the US might produce 88.7 million tonnes of soy (46 million tonnes might be allocated for crushing), while for Brazil, the total may be 88 million tonnes, being world's second major producer of soy – data were almost the same as that released in November. Brazil might crush 37 million tonnes. IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), in turn, indicates that the Brazilian crop may amount 88.64 million tonnes, higher than that forecasted by the USDA, but still lower compared to the production of the USA. Conab (National Company for Food Supply) estimates the season at 90.3 million tonnes, which, if confirmed, may lead Brazil to be world's major producer.
Due to the low availability of the product and the low liquidity, prices in Brazil are almost nominal. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for the soy delivered at the Paranaguá port remained stable from November 29 to December 16, and closed at BRL77.25 (US$33.17) per 60-kilogramme bag on December 16. In the same period, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for soy (Paraná state – reference for trades in Brazil) dropped 2.74%, at BRL73.56 (US$31.58) per 60-kilogramme bag.
