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December 19, 2008

  
EU 2009-10 grain output to reach 292 million tonnes
  
  

European Union grain production in 2009-10 is forecast at 292 million tonnes, down 6 percent on the year, analysts Strategie Grains said Thursday (December 18).


In its first 2009-10 forecast, Strategie Grains said European Union grain plantings will be down by around 2 percent on the year, at 58.6 million hectares.


The anticipated fall in production is also due to an expectation that yields won't be as high in 2009-10, falling 5 percent from the current crop yield.


Soft wheat production is expected to fall 5 percent to 133 million tonnes in 2009-10, driven mainly by reduced output from the UK, Romania, Bulgaria and Spain, the analytical firm said.


Corn production is forecast to fall by around 7 percent to 57.5 million tonnes in 2009-10, with reduced output from eastern Europe, the report said.


However, these figures are all subject to revisions as planting decisions for next spring are made and weather becomes the key to crop development.


Production estimates for the 2008-09 EU crop were revised upward to 311.9 million tonnes, from last month's estimate of 310.4 million tonnes, due to higher-than-expected corn production.


EU 2008-09 wheat closing stocks remain high, forecast at 17 million tonnes, although a slowdown in Russian exports could be bullish for the market, the report said.


"In the short term at least, there could now be some respite on the market from the downward pressure exerted by Russian wheat," said Strategie Grains. 
    

OUTPUT (million tonnes)

  

 
December
November
Change on-year
CEREAL
2009-10
2008-09
2008-09
 
Soft wheat
132.8
140.3
140.1
-5%
Barley
63.3
65.6
65.8
-4%
Corn
57.5
62.0
61.0
-7%
Durum
8.8
9.7
9.6
-10%
Rye
9.0
9.3
9.2
-4%
Oats and other
20.7
24.9
24.7
-17%
TOTAL
292.0
311.9
310.4
-6%
 
 YIELDS (tonnes/hectare) 
 
 

December

November

Change on-year

CEREAL

2009-10

2008-09

2008-09

 

Soft wheat

5.8

6.1

6.1

-5%

Barley

4.5

4.5

4.5

-2%

Corn

6.8

7.1

7.0

-4%

Durum

3.0

3.2

3.2

-7%

Rye

3.3

3.4

3.3

-4%

Oats and other

2.8

3.4

3.3

-16%

AVERAGE

5.0

5.2

5.2

-5%


AREA SOWN (million hectares)
      

 

December

November

Change on-year

CEREAL

2009-10

2008-09

2008-09

 

Soft wheat

22.9

23.1

23.1

-1%

Barley

14.2

14.5

14.5

-2%

Corn

8.4

8.7

8.7

-4%

Durum

2.9

3.0

3.0

-3%

Rye

2.7

2.7

2.7

-1%

Oats and other

7.4

7.4

7.4

-1%

TOTAL

58.6

59.5

59.6

-2%

   
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