December 19, 2006

Weather stress possible for India's wheat crop

Warmer-than-normal temperatures in India over the next three months may stress the winter wheat crop during the key heading stage of development, according to an outlook released by Earth Satellite's Cropcast Monday.

"India's dry season looks to be warmer than normal," the forecasters said. "Winter wheat development could run into some problems due to this heat."

In India, wheat is sown between October and December for harvest from mid-February onward.

Last week, India's Agriculture Minister said 2007 wheat output could reach 74 million tonnes, up from an estimated 69.5 million tonnes this year, if the weather continues to be favourable. Recent government figures estimate India's wheat planting will be up 10 percent on-year at 23.25 million hectares.

Due to a shortfall in domestic stocks during the 2006-07 marketing year, India emerged as one of the world's largest wheat importers. The US Department of Agriculture estimates India's 2006-07 wheat imports at 6 million tonnes, up from nearly none the year prior.

In China, the outlook remains significantly warmer and drier for the next three months, Cropcast forecasts. Winter wheat will be dormant through February, and that will keep dryness concerns limited. However, dryness could begin to be a concern in March, when the crop breaks dormancy, Cropcast said in the forecast.