Climate change threatens China's agricultural future

Global warming remains as one of the top concerns for farmers across the world. China's concerns are for its agricultural industries, especially its grain production.  

According to China's Meteorological Administration, droughts and floods stoked by global warming threaten to destabilise China's grain production, and they advocate bigger grain reserves and strict protection of farmland and water supplies.

Extreme weather damage can cause annual grain output in China, the world's biggest grain producer, to fluctuate by about 10-20% from longer-term averages.

A stretch of especially bad weather for farming conditions could be disastrous for the world's most populous nation, it said in a report.

A vast developing country with a farming population of some 750 million, the Middle Kingdom is also one of the nations most vulnerable to global warming. China should make a priority of reducing the impact of global warming on the country's food security, and strengthening the capacity of agriculture to withstand climatic risks.

Grain production in the country has recently reached record levels, despite damage from droughts, floods and frost. In 2008, China enjoyed a fifth straight year of bumper harvests, with grain output at a record 525 million tonnes. US output over the 2007-08 growing year was 412 million tonnes.

By 2030, the country's crop productivity could be 5-10% lower than it would be without global warming, report said.

While rising temperatures may extend potential growing times and areas for some crops, especially in northeast China, the accompanying rise in evaporation rates is likely to reduce water supplies, undercutting any increases in crop yields, added the report.

Without adequate adaptive measures, in the second half of the century wheat, rice and corn production could fall by as much as 37% of recent averages.