December 18, 2006

 

World beef & pork production to increase as consumer fears fade

 

 

According to FAO's recently released its Food Outlook publication, world meat markets in 2007 are expected to gradually recover from the consequences of animal disease outbreaks, such as foot and mouth disease (FMD) and mad cow disease.

 

FAO forecasts world meat production during 2007 would be 3.1 percent higher than in 2006 due to recovering consumer confidence.

 

World beef production is expected to be up 2.7 percent over 2006 to total 67.5 million tonnes, due to higher prices.

 

World pork production is forecast to rise 3.7 percent over 2006 to 112 million tonnes.

 

FAO forecasts world meat exports during 2007 to rise 6.3 percent over 2006 to 22.0 millioon tonnes, dependent upon the lifting of animal disease related trade bans and a steady recovery in consumption.

 

World beef exports are predicted to rise 9.1 percent over 2006 to 7.2 million tonnes, as import bans are removed on beef from Brazil and North America.

 

During 2007, world pork exports are forecast to reach 5.0 million tonnes, 4.2 percent more than 2006 due to strong demand from Asia and Russia.

 

Despite the expectations of a gradual recovery in meat consumption and trade during 2007, meat prices during most of 2006 remained low.

 

A strong recovery in Asia's beef consumption and imports during 2007 is expected to support grain-fed beef prices.

 

However, overall beef price increases are expected to be steadied by an increase in exports from South America.

 

Ample supplies of pork in 2006 put pressure on pork prices. High pork stocks in Japan have led to a large decline in Japan's import prices, the report noted.

 

Higher feed prices may increase pork prices during 2007 but continued growth in the US and a competitive exchange rate are expected to ease the increase in international prices in 2007.

 

According to data from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), during October, US exports of beef and veal cuts and beef variety meats equaled 58,270 tonnes, 5.8 percent more than the previous month and 35.7 percent more on-year.

 

Exports of fresh, chilled product totaled 24,632 tonnes, which was up 1.5 percent over the previous month and was up 57.8 percent over October 2005.

 

Exports of frozen product equaled 5,697 tonnes, 166.7 percent higher than October 2005.