December 17, 2003

US Corn Exports Benefit From Reduced Competition

Projected 2003/04 October-September global coarse grain trade is little changed this month at 101.7 million tons, but U.S. exports are up because of reduced competition. Argentina's corn exports are down 0.5 million tons to 10 million because of reduced production prospects. Brazil's 2003/04 October-September corn exports were also reduced 0.5 million tons to 5 million because of slower-than expected pace of recent sales and shipments.

These changes boosted U.S. corn export prospects 1 million tons to 48.5 million (October-September), the highest since 1999/2000 and up 18 percent compared with last year's low level. The early-season pace of U.S. corn export sales and shipments has been strong. According to Census, October corn exports reached 4.0 million tons, up 24 percent compared with a year ago. Grain inspections in November reached 4.2 million tons, up 21 percent. As of December 4, 2003, outstanding export sales of corn were reported at 10.3 million tons, up 39 percent compared with the same time a year ago.

Projected U.S. sorghum exports were increased 0.2 million tons to 5 million this month because of strong sales to the EU. EU sorghum imports for 2003/04 were increased 0.4 million tons, but Mexico's expected imports were reduced 0.2 million because of tight supplies and high prices in the United States. In recent years, Mexico has imported kibbled (coarsely ground) corn which appears to have displaced some sorghum imports.

Source: USDA