December 16, 2010

Global oilseed sees higher output on-month

Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is seen at 442.6 million tonnes, up 1.9 million tonnes from the previous month.

Global soy production is projected at a 257.8 million tonnes, up 0.4 million mainly due to an increase for Canada.

Global rapeseed production is projected at 58.4 million tonnes, up 1.2 million due to gains for Canada and EU-27. Canadian rapeseed production is raised 900,000 tonnes to 11.9 million based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada. EU-27 rapeseed production is increased due to higher yield estimates for Germany, UK, and Romania.

Other changes this month include increased sunflower seed production for EU-27, increased cottonseed production for Brazil and Australia, and reduced cottonseed production for Pakistan.

Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 70.3 million tonnes, down one million, as lower soy stocks in Brazil and the US are only partly offset by higher rapeseed stocks in Canada.

Global oilseed trade is projected at 112.2 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month. Increased soy exports from the US and Canada account for most of the change.

Total US oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 101.7 million tonnes, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soy exports are increased 20 million bushels to 1.59 billion reflecting record export commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) through November. With projected crush unchanged, soy ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 165 million bushels, down 20 million from last month.

The US season-average soy price range for 2010/11 is projected at US$10.70 to US$12.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soymeal price projection is also unchanged at US$310 to US$350 per short tonne. Soyoil prices are projected at US$0.45-0.49 per pound, up US$0.025 on both ends of the range.