December 16, 2009

US to produce less meat in 2010

American production of beef, pork and poultry are forecast to decline 2010, while exports of beef and pork for both 2009 and 2010 will increase.

Cattle slaughter in 2010 will remain unchanged but carcass weights will be lower in the first quarter, said the USDA in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Hog slaughter will be reduced due to lower expected hog imports from Canada. Growth in broiler and turkey production are expected to slow, as hatchery data show little signs of expansion.

USDA raised its beef export forecast for 2009 to 1.846 billion pounds from 1.825 last month, and raised 2010 export forecast to 1.985 billion pounds from 1.925 billion on expected economic recovery in some markets.

Pork export forecast for 2009 was raised to 4.176 billion pounds from 4.135 billion last month, while 2010 forecast was raised to 4.6 billion from 4.45 billion, noting fourth quarter 2009 exports were stronger than expected and improved economic prospects in several markets.

Cattle price forecasts for both 2009 and 2010 were lowered as a weak beef demand is expected to pressurise prices. The price for choice steers (Nebraska direct, 1,100-1,300 pounds) in 2009 is estimated to average US$82.95 per cwt, down from US$83.32 estimated in November.

Cattle prices in 2010 are forecast in a range of US$86 to US$93 per cwt, down from a range of US$87 to US$94 forecast a month ago.