December 15, 2010

Oil World cuts Argentine soy harvest estimate

Argentina may reap 50.50 million tonnes of soy in early 2011, down from 54.4 million tonnes in early 2010, oilseeds analysts Oil World forecasted Tuesday (Dec 14).

This was 1.5 million tonnes down on its previous estimate in November and follows dry weather in the country.

But Oil World raised its forecast of Brazil's 2011 soy crop by 500,000 tonnes to 67.30 million tonnes because of larger than expected plantings and good weather. This would still be down from 68.7 million tonnes harvested by Brazil in early 2010.

The Argentine farm minister has forecast a 2011 crop of 52 million tonnes but the government has warned dry weather is a concern. Official Brazilian estimates put the crop at 68.6 million tonnes.

"While it is still much too dry in the major Argentine soy and corn belt, rainfall and growing conditions have improved considerably in most of Brazil with the main exception of the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul," Oil World said, adding that expanded plantings had also encouraged an increase in the Brazilian crop estimate.

If Argentine weather remains dry in the next few weeks Oil World said it may have to cut its crop estimate again.

Paraguay's 2011 crop is likely to fall slightly to seven million tonnes from 7.38 million tonnes in 2010, Oil World said. But Uruguay's harvest is likely to rise to 2.05 million tonnes from 1.95 million tonnes in 2010.