December 15, 2010

Analysts trim world corn trade prospects

Global corn trade is now projected at 92 million tonnes in 2010/11 (October-September), down 1.2 million this month.

The largest reduction in projected imports is for Mexico, down one million tonnes to 8.1 million. Sluggish feed demand is expected to limit imports as growth in meat production is not as robust as previously expected. Canada's corn imports are trimmed 0.2 million tonnes to 1.6 million because of record production. These declines are partly offset by small increases for Algeria, where corn feed use is growing, and the US, with a record-large Canadian corn crop next door.

Corn export prospects are revised for several countries. Brazil's 2010/11 October- September trade year exports reduced by one million tonnes to eight million, but the March-February local marketing year export prospects are left unchanged at seven million. This means a larger portion of Brazil's local marketing year exports are expected to be shipped between October 2011 and February 2012. Serbia's corn exports decreased by 0.8 million tonnes this month to 1.7 million as logistical constraints are expected to limit exports despite the large crop. Mexico's export prospects are reduced slightly as well. Partly offsetting these reductions are increased corn export prospects for India, up 500,000 tonnes to 2.5 million tonnes, and for Canada, up 200,000 tonnes to 500,000 tonnes. Both countries are harvesting record large corn crops.

US corn exports are forecast unchanged this month for 2010/11 at 50 million tonnes (1.95 billion bushels for the September-August local marketing year). Trade year 2010/11 corn exports are projected up less than 1% over those of the previous year. October 2010 corn exports were reported by Census at 3.4 million, slightly less than those of a year earlier, but November inspections were up 10%. Moreover, as of December 2, 2010, outstanding sales were 12.4 million tonnes, up from 10.1 million a year ago.

Global barley trade is reduced slightly this month as reduced production in Canada is expected to limit US imports. Canada's export prospects are trimmed 400,000 tonnes to one million, but this is mostly offset by increased exports by Australia, with increased production prospects.

Forecast for world sorghum trade for 2010/11 is unchanged this month at 6.4 million tonnes. A small increase in EU imports is offset by a reduction in Mexico's imports.