Australian wheat export value to fall in 2009-10

The value of Australian wheat exports in the current fiscal will fall 15% to A$4.27 billion (US$3.9 billion), reflecting the impact of expected lower world wheat prices and an assumed stronger currency, the government's chief commodities forecaster said Tuesday.

However, export volumes are forecast to rise 9.2% on year to 14.6 million tonnes in the fiscal ending next June, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics reported in its quarterly Australian commodities outlook publication. Australia is a major global wheat supplier.

Australian wheat production, a key determinant of export availability, is forecast to rise a little to 22 million tonnes in the current crop year ending next March from actual output last year of a revised 20.9 million tonnes, Abare reported, reiterating a forecast from its Crop Report issued December 8.

Abare's forecasts assume the exchange rate for the Australian dollar this fiscal will average US$0.89, up from a September estimate of US$0.83 and up from an actual average of US$0.75 last fiscal.

A large global crop and lower expected global demand for feed wheat has placed downward pressure on wheat prices, it said.

Its world indicator price, US hard red winter wheat, free on board US Gulf of Mexico, is forecast to average US$219/tonne in 2009-10, down 19% or US$52 from the previous year.

The Australian net return on collective pool sales is forecast to average US$256/tonne this year, down 21% from US$324/tonne last year, it said.

For 2009-10, Abare projects world production at 667 million tonnes, consumption at 643 million tonnes, closing inventories at 187 million tonnes and global trade at 116 million tonnes.

For last year, it estimated production at 687 million tonnes, consumption at 641 million tonnes, closing inventories at 163 million tonnes and global trade at 136 million tonnes.