December 15, 2008
The value of Australian wheat exports will surge this fiscal year ending June 30, 2009, reflecting increased production and a weaker currency, the government's chief commodities forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, said Monday (December 15).
Wheat exports this fiscal year are forecast at 10.6 million tonnes and valued at A$4.68 billion compared with shipments of 7.4 million tonnes valued at A$3.00 billion last fiscal year, it said in its quarterly Australian commodities outlook publication.
Australia is a major global exporter of wheat.
Australian wheat production, a key determinant of export availability, is forecast to rise to 20.0 million tonnes this crop year ending March 31, 2009, from a drought-reduced revised 13.6 million tonnes last crop year, it said.
Abare said increased global wheat production has resulted in the world indicator price, US hard red winter wheat, FOB US Gulf of Mexico, falling to average US$244/tonne in November from a peak of US$454/tonne in March.
The price is forecast to average US$260/tonne this fiscal year, down from US$362/tonne last fiscal year, it said.
For this fiscal year ending June 30, 2008, Abare projects world production at 683 million tonnes, consumption at 651 million tonnes, closing inventories at 150 million tonnes and global trade at 117 million tonnes.
For last fiscal year, it estimated production at 610 million tonnes, consumption at 614 million tonnes, closing inventories at 118 million tonnes and global trade at 110 million tonnes.