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December 15, 2008

 

ASA weekly: USDA 2008-09 soy forecast at 5.58 million tonnes
 
 

USDA kept its soy production estimate at 5.58 million tonnes as the soy crushings fall to 46.7 million tonnes was offset by an 816,000 tonnes increase in exports.

 

Trade projections for USDA's ending stocks ranged from 5.17 million tonnes to 5.85 million tonnes, averaging 5.5 million tonnes.

 

USDA offset the crush reduction mostly with lower domestic usage for soymeal and lower exports for soyoil. USDA revised its soymeal domestic use estimate down by 408,000 tonnes and slashed exports by 181,000 tonnes. In regards to lower soyoil production, exports were lowered by 113,000 tonnes and non- biodiesel domestic use was lowered by 45,400 tonnes.

 

In addition, USDA revised upwards its world carryout due to crush reductions in the United States, Brazil and Argentina. USDA maintained its Argentine soy production forecast at 50.5 million tonnes, but trimmed its estimate for Brazil's crop to 59 million tonnes from 60 million.

 

Weak RMB not affecting US-China agricultural trade

 

USDA Secretary of Agriculture Ed Schafer said recent downturn in China's Renminbi versus the US dollar has not pulled down US-China agricultural trade.

 

He said this amid strong speculation that China may depreciate Renminbi to save tumbling exports. The Renminbi, whose exchange rate is controlled by China's central bank, had stayed flat for four months and then fell to a five-month low in December.

 

China took the place of Japan to be the third largest export market and biggest import market for US agricultural trade in 2007. Farm trade between the two countries totalled nearly US$20 billion last year.

 

Meanwhile, China is continuing to import soy in large quantities. Official data from the China Customs Administration shows that China bought 3.32 million tonnes of the commodity in November, a rise of 56 percent from October.

 

Imports in the first 11 months of 2008 rose 22.4 percent to 34.14 million tonnes, as a decrease in shipping costs and lower prices on CBOT have made it more economical for crushers in the north of the country to purchase foreign soy , rather than buy domestically.
 
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance
 
United States 
Argentina
Brazil
Actual
Estimate
Proj.
Actual
Estimate
Proj.
Actual
Estimate
Proj.
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Soybeans
thousand tonnes
 Carryin
12,229
15,617
3,811
334
1,876
680
2,252
3,110
3,235
 Production
86,770
70,358
79,848
48,800
46,500
50,500
59,000
61,000
62,500
 Imports
246
272
272
2,336
3,325
3,450
108
150
160
 Crush
49,198
49,396
48,580
35,962
36,400
37,890
31,511
32,400
32,500
 Exports
30,428
31,434
27,216
12,132
13,100
14,100
23,805
25,650
27,500
 Other
4,002
1,606
4,469
1,500
1,521
1,550
2,934
2,975
3,025
 Usage
83,628
82,436
80,265
49,594
51,021
53,540
58,250
61,025
63,025
   Carryout
15,617
3,811
3,666
1,876
680
1,090
3,110
3,235
2,870
Soymeal
thousand tonnes
 Carryin
285
314
272
2,003
1,144
1,610
863
1,563
2,263
 Production
39,058
39,022
38,469
27,856
28,621
29,745
24,420
25,130
25,190
 Domestic use
31,184
30,618
30,844
617
640
696
11,520
12,155
12,550
 Net Exports
7,845
8,446
7,652
28,098
27,515
29,000
12,200
12,275
12,970
 Usage
39,029
39,064
38,496
28,715
28,155
29,696
23,720
24,430
25,520
   Carryout
314
272
245
1,144
1,610
1,659
1,563
2,263
1,933
Soybean oil
thousand tonnes
 Carryin
1,365
1,399
1,195
487
310
331
300
341
336
 Production
9,294
9,498
9,231
6,917
6,958
7,245
6,050
6,220
6,240
 Domestic use
8,420
8,368
8,324
580
995
1,170
3,550
3,895
4,048
 Net exports
840
1,334
1,043
6,514
5,942
6,035
2,459
2,330
2,190
 Usage
9,260
9,702
9,367
7,094
6,937
7,205
6,009
6,225
6,238
   Carryout
1,399
1,195
1,059
310
331
371
341
336
338
 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 4 December 2008

Country

Commodity

New Sales

Accum. Exports

 

Country

Commodity

New Sales

Accum. Exports

Barbados

Soybeans

1.00

7.10

 

Italy

Soymeal

25.80

25.80

China

Soybeans

636.30

6041.90

 

Jamaica

Soymeal

4.00

19.10

Egypt

Soybeans

45.00

142.10

 

Japan

Soymeal

11.50

30.70

Taiwan

Soybeans

6.60

546.70

 

Mexico

Soymeal

5.80

297.10

Italy

Soybeans

5.80

59.60

 

Panama

Soymeal

13.80

38.30

Japan

Soybeans

2.80

631.60

 

Philippines

Soymeal

28.40

44.30

Morocco

Soybeans

25.00

30.60

 

Salvador

Soymeal

4.70

18.80

Netherlands

Soybeans

116.20

429.10

 

Turkey

Soymeal

11.00

21.80

Philippines

Soybeans

0.70

6.60

 

Algeria

Soyoil

15.00

15.00

Syria

Soybeans

0.80

138.30

 

Canada

Soyoil

0.60

6.80

Taiwan

Soybeans

6.60

546.70

 

 

 

 

 

Turkey

Soybeans

56.00

212.20

 

 

 

 

 

Vietnam

Soybeans

0.90

8.60

 

Export Sales Totals (tmt)

Algeria

Soymeal

19.80

19.80

 

Commodity

Outstanding Sales

Accum. Exports

New Sales

Canada

Soymeal

8.50

188.80

 

Soybeans

7,888.70

10,474.30

809.90

Dom. Rep.

Soymeal

7.20

52.60

 

Soymeal

1,561.70

1,289.20

18.60

Honduras

Soymeal

1.60

29.10

 

Soyoil

114.20

92.90

207.10


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