December 15, 2006

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Friday: Down 1-2 cents; consolidating, following e-CBOT

 

 

Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade are seen starting Friday's day session lower, taking its cue from overnight price weakness amid the absence of fresh news.

 

Soybean futures are called to open 1 to 2 cents lower.

 

In e-CBOT trade, January soybeans were 1 1/2 cents lower at US$6.61 1/4 and March was 1 1/2 cents lower at US$6.76 per bushel.

 

The market is poised for a lower start, with futures expected to consolidate heading into the weekend, analysts said.

 

A quiet news front is expected to keep prices range bound, hovering between technical support and resistance, traders added. Meanwhile, underlying demand is seen keeping a floor under prices, with analysts pointing to Thursday's solid weekly export sales and fresh sales to unknown destinations as an indication of importer interest following the recent correction in prices.

 

A market technician said first resistance for January soybeans is seen at this week's high of US$6.69 1/2 and then at US$6.75 3/4. First support is seen at Thursday's low of US$6.59 1/2 and then at this week's low of US$6.52 1/4.

 

The DTN Meteorlogix weather forecast said scattered thundershower activity will maintain favorable growing conditions for Argentina's soybeans. In Brazil, a few more thundershowers were reported in Rio Grande do Sul Thursday but it was also quite hot. Dry, hot weather will continue to deplete soil moisture for soybeans during the next few days, but rain chances increase next week, Meteorlogix said.

 

In deliveries, a total of 103 delivery notices were posted against the December soyoil future. The house account at Term Commodities issued 55 lots, with stoppers scattered among firms. The last trade date assigned was Dec. 14. Soymeal delivery notices totaled 339 lots. Issuers and stoppers were widely scattered. The last trade date assigned was Dec. 14.

 

U.S. Midwest cash soybean basis bids are mostly unchanged Friday. Spot cash soybean bids were up 2 cents in Des Moines, Iowa, up 1 cent in Quincy, Ill., and down 5 cents at St. Louis, according to cash sources Friday.

 

Rotterdam soybeans were higher and soymeal was mixed. European vegoils were mixed.

 

In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled lower Friday on long liquidation, continuing its consolidation amid weak fundamentals, analysts said. The benchmark May 2007 contract fell RMB16 to settle at RMB2,835 a metric tonne.

 

Crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended mixed after a range-bound, unexciting session, with export data for the first half of the month having little impact on the market, traders said Friday. The benchmark February contract ended up MYR5 at MYR1,860 a metric tonne.