December 14, 2007

Higher yield ups forecast for 2007/08 world coarse grain output

Figures from Statistics Canada, global coarse grain production is projected to reach 1,054.3 million tonnes, virtually unchanged from a month ago but world corn production is forecast up 1.1 million tonnes to 769.3 million tonnes, while barley is down 0.8 million to 133.7 million, and oats are down 0.3 million to 25.3 million.

Canada was the key to changes for each coarse grain as it posted the largest increase in 2007/08 corn production up 1.1 million tonnes this month to 11.7 million tonnes. Statistics Canada reported that surveys indicate corn yields were better than expected, especially in Ontario where there had been pockets of drought in the corn producing region. Statistics Canada also reported lower-than-expected yields and a small reduction in harvested area for barley and oats.

Projections for corn production were also increased due to higher reported yields in Ukraine, EU-27, Russia, and Serbia. Ukraine production was raised 0.4 million tonnes; EU-27 production was raised 0.4 million (France); Russia production was raised 0.3 million; and Serbia production was also up slightly. However, these increases were offset by reduced corn production for Turkey, down 0.8 million tonnes to 2.9 million tonnes as drought, high temperatures, and short water supplies for irrigation combined to cut area and yield. Also, corn production prospects for South Africa were reduced 0.5 million tonnes to 10.0 million tonnes as planting intentions surveys indicated a smaller increase in corn area planted than previously forecast.

Russia's barley harvest reports indicate a lower final yield, reducing 2007/08 production 0.5 million tonnes this month to 16.5 million tonnes. However, Australia reported barley area harvested 10 percent higher than previously forecast, more than offsetting a reduction in projected yields and boosting production 0.3 million tonnes to 5.8 million tonnes. There was also a small increase for the EU-27 (Finland). Corn supplies for 2007/08 were boosted by a 1.2-million ton increase in beginning stocks. Deliveries indicated increased 2006/07 production for South Africa, boosting stocks. Argentina's reduced pace for 2006/07 local marketing year exports also increased beginning stocks for 2007/08.