December 14, 2004

Celeres Maintains Brazil 2004-05 Soy Crop View at 63.9 Million MT

Brazilian agricultural consultancy Celeres maintained its Brazilian soybean output estimate for 2004-05 at 63.9 million metric tons in its December report.

The Celeres estimate is lower than the 64.5 million tons forecast by the US Department of Agriculture, but significantly higher than the 60.2 million tons predicted by the Agriculture Ministry in October. Conab will release a new estimate on Tuesday.

Output is still pegged some 25% higher than last season as yields return to normal after last year's weather as well as disease problems and planted area increases.

Planted area is seen totaling 22.83 million hectares, 7.3% higher than the year before.

Reports from soybean-producing regions indicate yield estimates may have to be lowered in the January report. The problems are focused in the states of Bahia, Goias, Minas Gerais and some parts of the No. 1 producer Mato Grosso, where dryness caused problems during planting. The early appearance of the deadly Asian rust fungus in various regions is also negative for yield prospects.

Forward sales of 2004-05 soybeans were virtually paralyzed last week.

Farmers have sold only 17% of potential output sold up to Dec. 10 compared with 48% at the same stage last year and a five-year average of 35%, said Celeres' soy analyst Anderson Galvao Gomes.

Up to Dec. 10, farmers had sold 94% of their crop compared with 100% at the same point last year and a five-year average of 100%.

Brazil is the world's No. 2 producer and exporter of soybeans.