December 13, 2012

 

 

As compared to the level seen this year, the amount of rapeseed to be seeded in Canada in the spring of 2013 is expected to be lower, assuming average yields and weather conditions are expected to boost production.

 

Seeded area in the spring of 2013 was expected to be at least 10-15% lower than the 21.5 million acres seeded to the crop in the spring of 2012, said Mike Jubinville, an analyst with ProFarmer Canada.

 

A lot of the acreage loss to rapeseed will be seeded instead to wheat, barley and possibly a few other cereal crops, he said.

 

The overextended rotation of rapeseed during the past number of years and the development of disease issues was a key factor in the reduced seeded area for the crop, said Chris Beckman, the oilseed analyst with the market analysis division of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada in Winnipeg.

 

"Clubroot, aster yellows as well as even more common disease issues have increased in rapeseed as farmers across the country have tried to maximise rapeseed yields in order to take advantage of strong financial returns," he said.

 

Beckman agreed a lot of the area that will not be seeded to rapeseed was likely to go to wheat. High prices for wheat -- and the removal of the Canadian Wheat Board as the sole marketer of the grain in Western Canada -- were expected to translate into farmers planting the crop, said Ken Ball, with the PI Financial Group.

 

Beckman forecast seeded area to rapeseed would be at least a million acres less than the year ago, while Ball speculated area could be down 1.2 million-1.5 million acres.

 

All three, however, said that if more normal weather patterns in Canada return next spring and summer and if average yields can be achieved, production of the crop on the lower seeded area could translate into higher production than during the 2012-13 crop year.

 

Statistics Canada in early December pegged Canada's 2012-13 rapeseed output at 13.309 million tonnes. In 2011-12, Canadian rapeseed production totalled 14.608 million tonnes.

 

During the 2012-13 growing season, there were some pretty adverse weather issues that trimmed the yield potential, Jubinville pointed out.

 

Beckman and Ball also acknowledged rapeseed output would easily be in the 15 million-tonne-plus territory if the yields were to average out, which would go a long way in satisfying the demand of both the domestic and export sectors in Canada.